AEGIS Hedging - Metals First Look
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LME Aluminum 3M Select trades $23.75 higher to $3182 at 8:25:29 AM
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(Bloomberg) – The global aluminum market will face deepening deficits if constraints on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continue, according to leading European producer Norsk Hydro ASA. Flows through the critical waterway have deteriorated since the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, inhibiting incoming supplies of raw materials and outbound metal exports from the Persian Gulf, Hydro CEO Eivind Kallevik said in an interview. The Iran war has led smelters in the Middle East, which produce nearly a 10th of the world’s aluminum, to seek out alternative logistic routes, while producers elsewhere are boosting output. But a protracted conflict would drive the market’s supply gap beyond the 900,000-ton shortfall that Hydro currently expects, Kallevik said. “It’s quite clear that the situation has deteriorated quite rapidly,” Kallevik said, referring to shipping through Hormuz. “The more protracted the situation in the Gulf is, logically the tighter the market will be globally.” The aluminum market has been roiled by the conflict, with a major reordering of global supply chains helping to blunt some of the impact. China and Indonesia have delivered an unexpected supply boost, while other producers including Norsk Hydro have also been seeking to ramp up output. European manufacturers have also been drawing down inventories since the war began, helping to mitigate the impact of outright shortages in the regional market up to now, Kallevik said. “There was ample supply in many port inventories at the beginning of year,” Kallevik said, noting that incoming shipments had risen ahead of the introduction of a new carbon levy on aluminum imports. “The acid test for the rest of 2026 is how many cargoes we get in to replenish those inventories.”
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LME Copper 3M Select trades $-24.75 lower to $13860.50 at 8:25:31 AM
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CME HRC Steel last traded at $1156 and $2 higher at 7:56:57 AM
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Price Indications
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Today's Charts
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Metals Factor Matrix
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AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices
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Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.
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