AEGIS Hedging - Metals First Look
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Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here.
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LME Aluminum 3M Select trades $11.75 higher to $3633 at 8:48:42 AM
- (Bloomberg) – Hopes are rising that an end to the Iran war is in sight, but even an immediate resolution would come too late to avoid a major supply shock in the aluminum market. Since the start of the conflict, the aluminum industry has been warning that Middle Eastern smelters would be forced to cut production if raw materials flowing into the region through the Strait of Hormuz were choked off for more than a few weeks. Throughout the conflict, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been warning that the industry was heading toward a black hole, or a “metaphorical point of no return” where the “global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage” even if flows through Hormuz resume. This week, it told clients the market has now entered that void, and forecast prices could top $4,000 a ton as the industry encounters the biggest supply deficit in more than 25 years. The supply shock will hit western manufacturers particularly hard, given the key alternative suppliers are China and Russia, which have been effectively shut out of US and European markets by sanctions and trade tariffs. Factories are already paying much higher prices to find other options, but for some buyers of the downstream products that Middle Eastern smelters specialize in, the shortfalls may prove impossible to resolve
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LME Copper 3M Select trades $28 higher to $13275 at 8:48:39 AM
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CME HRC Steel last traded at $1046 and $0 lower at 4/15/2026
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Price Indications
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Today's Charts
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Metals Factor Matrix
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AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices
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Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.
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