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First Look - US oil exports to China fall

Oil is trading higher, with prices moving towards the top of the recent price range
- Crude prices have been stuck in a range between $68 and $71/Bbl for the past two months
US crude exports to China fall (BBG)
- Oil exports from the US to China fell by almost half this year as weak demand in China weighed on imports, and supply from Russia and Iran was more heavily sought
- Chinese imports from all nations fell about 7.2% in 2024, as higher EV and LNG adoption hit demand for transportation fuels
- Seaborne flows from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela increased from about 24% of China’s supply to 26%
- Europe has been an increasingly important destination for US oil, with WTI now being included in the Brent benchmark

Natural gas dropped Thursday morning by 22c to $3.72/MMBtu as weather models show disagreement in the second week of the two-week forecast
- The next seven days are to be warm and very warm, while the following week holds more weather volatility
- Speaking of volatility, the January contract settled as low as $3.02 on December 3 and as high as $3.94 on Christmas eve
- The EIA is scheduled to publish this week’s gas storage report on Friday instead of the usual Thursday release
LNG demand in the US hits an all-time high
- Modeled feed gas flows into LNG facilities hit 15.2 Bcf/d on Christmas day (Criterion Research data)
- The record was achieved with help from Plaquemines LNG, with the new LNG plant taking in 653 MMcf/d yesterday
- LNG gas demand is expected to increase to about 16 Bcf/d by March