Oil is trading lower after Iranian attack on Israel
Over the weekend, Iran launched numerous drones and missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted
Citi boosts oil price forecast (BBG)
Citi’s base case is for tensions in the Middle East to remain extremely high while also saying that the impact of the tensions in the Middle East has had a larger-than-expected effect on price
The bank has increased its three-month price forecast from $75/Bbl to $83/Bbl, and its Q2 forecast from $74/Bbl to $82/Bbl
Citi added that a de-escalation of conflict could see prices fall to the high $70s while an intensification of conflict could see prices move toward $100/Bbl on the risk of disrupted supply
Kazakhstan is still overproducing (BBG)
OPEC member Kazakhstan said it produced more than its quota in March, with production coming in 131 MBbl/d higher than its committed amount
Overproduction by OPEC members Iraq and Kazakhstan is a bearish risk for crude prices
Natural gas prices trade lower amid storage surplus despite lower production
May ’24 Henry Hub is down 4.6c this morning to trade around $1.933/MMBtu
The Summer ’24 strip is down 5.3c to $2.218 and Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 4.3c to $3.376
Today's Euro Ensemble indicates warmer conditions across nearly all regions this weekend, although the Northeast will experience a brief cool down, with overall cooler temperatures this week before warmth resumes to end April above normal
Lower 48 dry gas production levels hovered around 98 Bcf/d amid ongoing spring maintenance (Criterion)
El Paso Natural Gas is performing maintenance from April 1- April 15, reducing capacity on the EPNG North Mainline section from 2.3 Bcf/d to about 1.52 Bcf/d
Gulf Coast Express is also overhauling compressors from April 9 to May 2, reducing its capacity from just under 2 Bcf/d to 1.6 Bcf/d
Freeport LNG exacerbates gas glut as mild weather dampens spring demand (S&P)
Freeport LNG's Train 3 liquefaction unit tripped on April 9-10 due to a ventilation flow meter issue, causing a drop in feedgas flows to just 180 MMcf on April 11, significantly lower than the over 1.5 Bcf nominated April 10
Continuous operational disruptions and preventative maintenance on liquefaction Trains 1 and 2 at Freeport LNG are expected to suppress feedgas demand, adding more gas to an already oversupplied US market
Since mid-January, over 80 Bcf of additional gas has been reintroduced into the US market due to recurrent disruptions at Freeport, with feedgas deliveries averaging 1.1 Bcf/d, down from around 2 Bcf/d prior to the issues starting mid-January
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