October 20, 2020

October 20, 2020
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  • WTI is down 23c to $40.60/Bbl, and Brent is down 24c to $42.38/Bbl
  • Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman called on the group (OPEC+) to be more proactive in the face of uncertain demand during the coalition’s committee meeting on Monday
    • Passenger numbers are showing signs of a recovery, as U.S airport security processed over 1 million travelers for the first time since the pandemic began
  • The OPEC+ alliance warned of a “precarious” outlook for demand as Coronavirus cases continue to mount globally
    • The alliance is slated to return 2 MMBbl/d to the market, starting in January; Though the slowing pace of recovery in demand has the market worried that there will not be a need for the additional oil
    • The cartel has remained adamant that they would act in response to the recovery in demand, allowing them to be more proactive and avoid spooking the market. The next JMCC meeting on November 17 will provide additional insight into the cartel’s next move
  • U.S. airport security checkpoints processed 1,031,505 people, or 39.6% of the equivalent day in 2019, according to a tally by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA)
    • Several of the busiest days since the onset of the pandemic have occurred over the past two weeks. If current levels were maintained for an entire year, it would equate to demand levels last seen 36 years ago
    • Airline loads fell by more than 417 million passengers since the virus hit compared to the same period in 2019, representing a drop of around 75%, according to the TSA
  • Natural gas is up 9.8c to $2.893/MMBtu
  • Natural gas for November is up over 4% after overnight weather model runs added 4.1 HDDs, according to CWG
    • Cal 2021 strip reached yet another four-year high Tuesday morning, now at $3.12 MMBtu
    • Summer 2021 (Apr-Oct) hovered around $3.00 MMBtu – the highest level for the strip since 3Q 2016
  • U.S. natural has production topped 90 Bcf/d on Monday on gains in Appalachia and offshore (Platts)
    • Domestic production edged up to its highest level since April over the past four days
    • Output in Appalachia has climbed about 1.5 bcf/d over the past week as some producers could be easing up on recent well curtailments ahead of winter, according to Platts
    • Last month, several Appalachian producers, including Cabot Oil & Gas, CNX Resources and EQT, had announced decisions to reduce production in response to near-term price weakness
  • Pipeline flows into U.S. LNG facilities have increased to 8.55 Bcf/d, up from about 3 Bcf/d observed in the doldrums of August
    • Cove Point LNG on the East Coast has returned from maintenance and is running at its full capacity of ~760 MMcf/d, according to Bloomberg data
    • Cameron LNG, which was knocked offline after a direct hit from Hurricane Laura, has increased feedgas to 1 Bcf/d
      • The three trains at Cameron LNG can export up to 1.7 Bcf/d, according to the company

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