October 16, 2020

October 16, 2020
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  • WTI is down 38c to $40.58/Bbl, and Brent is down 45c to $42.71/Bbl
    • Oil prices continue to be weighed down by rising Coronavirus cases, with cases in Europe and the United States curtailing demand in the world’s two largest markets
    • Crude prices also felt additional downward pressure from a strengthening dollar, as the DXY index had its best week in nearly a month
    • Bloomberg also reported that Libya production is climbing and is at 500 MBbl/d, though official data has not confirmed these numbers
  • Libya’s daily oil production has reached 500 MBbl/d
    • JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts that Libyan output could top 1MMBbl/d by March 2021
    • The nation holds the largest crude reserves in Africa. Though they are a member of the OPEC+ cartel, they had received exemptions from curtailments earlier this year as civil war continued in the war-battered country
  • The market received supportive data reported by the EIA on Thursday
    • The EIA reported a draw of -3,818 MBbls for the week ending October 9, well above the estimate of -2,136 MBbls
    • The nationwide oil inventory was down by almost 18 million barrels 9 (includes commercial, SPR, and refined products), which is the biggest weekly drop since December 2011
    • The surplus to the five-year-average contracted to 47.5 MMBbl/d
  • Natural gas is up 5.2c to $2.827/MMBtu
    • November gas futures are almost 2% higher this morning, continuing the rally of 5.27% on Thursday
    • The EIA announced a less than expected build in underground storage for the week ended October 9. The smaller build supported gas prices yesterday
  • The gas injection for last week was 46 Bcf, with analysts expecting closer to a 50 Bcf build.
    • The build in stocks was less than the five-year average of 87 Bcf and more bullish than the injection for 2019 for the same corresponding week
    • Total U.S. gas storage now stands at 3.877 Tcf with about a month left of gas injections
  • The National Weather Service published a winter weather forecast on October 15, calling for above-average temperatures across the U.S. Northeast and parts of the South and West from December to February
    • The forecast would limit some of natural gas’s upside this winter if estimates prove accurate (Platts)
    • The three-month outlook suggest that states from Main to Florida and California to New York will face a 33% to 60% chance for above-average temperatures during this winter’s coldest months
    • If you fancy reading about weather – U.S. Winter Outlook: Cooler North, warmer South with ongoing La Nina

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