November 19, 2020

November 19, 2020
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  • WTI is down 24c to $41.58/Bbl, and Brent is down 8c to $44.26/Bbl
  • China is forecasted to become the only major buyer of crude oil to see an increase in demand year-over-year (Reuters)
    • China’s oil demand increased approximately 3.6% while Europe and the Americas saw a decrease of 16.7% and 15.9%, respectively
    • Chinese imports could reach as high as 12.0 MMBbl/d next year, as key crude grades for the country have lost value during the pandemic
  • AEGIS remains cautious on near-term oil prices, despite recent vaccine news
    • While a vaccine is positive for demand, the benefits will likely take time to materialize
    • The global supply-and-demand inflection point could get moved forward, from Cal ’22, as a result of the recent news
  • Join AEGIS today at 2pm CST for our Market Update on oil and gas fundamentals – Email us if you missed the invite
  • Natural gas is down 14.4c to $2.568/MMBtu
  • Natural gas futures for December have dropped over 5% this morning despite a slightly cooler shift in the 1-15 day weather forecast for the last 24-hours (CWG)
    • Strong gas production could be to blame for the price weakness as the past seven days have averaged 90.1 Bcf/d, while the previous seven days averaged 87.7 Bcf/d – a 2.4 Bcf/d bump in a short period of time, according to Platts data
  • The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals declined to impose a stay on Endangered Species Act authorizations for the Mountain Valley Pipeline
    • Environmental groups had sought a stay ruling from the court pending litigation that would have covered the full 303-mile project
    • In a separate litigation, the same court imposed a stay on Nov. 9 on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers water crossing authorizations along the route
    • Equitrans, the company backing the 2 Bcf/d pipeline, recently pushed its in-service target date for full operations out to the second half of 2021
  • The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to report a 18 Bcf build in gas inventories later this morning for the week ended Nov. 13, according to the Bloomberg consensus estimates
    • A 18 Bcf build would be 84 Bcf more than this time last year and 42 Bcf higher than the five-year average

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