November 16, 2020

November 16, 2020
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  • WTI is up by 4%+ following the announcement of progress by Modera on a COVID-19 vaccine
    • Oil rallied as Moderna announced that its vaccine is 94.5% effective
    • Chinese crude consumption matches record at 14.14 MMBbl/d
  • In a preliminary analysis of a large late-stage clinical trial, Moderna’s vaccine was shown to be 94.5% effective
    • The trial results showed that the vaccine prevented nearly all symptomatic cases of COVID-19, preventing the most severe COVID-19 infections compared to those who received the placebo
    • AEGIS notes that the vaccine news will increase sentiment in markets; However, we are still several months away from the vaccine having a material impact on actual demand. Crude saw a similar rally last week following the announcement of the effectiveness of the vaccine created by Pfizer and BioNTech
  • China’s oil processing rebounded in October to match its record set in 2012
    • Holiday sales and a recovering economy helped push refinery inputs higher as the country has shown a massive increase in fuels demand
    • The refining increase has led to the first monthly drop in Chinese stockpiles since the pandemic began
  • Natural gas prices turned lower Monday after weather models shifted warmer over the weekend
    • The forecast showed a warmer Midwest with a cooler Texas to West in 11-15 day shifts, amounting to a loss of 13.2 HDDs (CWG)
    • The December contract is now trading at its lowest point since early August
  • Higher gas production in the Northeast and Haynesville is also weighing on price. Increases in the two gas plays push total Lower 48 gas production to 90 Bcf/d, according to PointLogic
    • Pipeline measurements of production show Northeast production back above 34 Bcf/d, close to the all-time record observed a few weeks ago
    • Production in the Haynesville has climbed to about 7.5 Bcf/d, up from the 7 Bcf/d low set a few months ago

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