March 18, 2021

March 18, 2021
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  • WTI is down 78c to $63.82/Bbl, and Brent is down 81c to $67.19/Bbl
  • Iran’s rising exports are destabilizing oil markets – Vitol
    • “If those barrels continue to trade through murkier channels, it is very destabilizing for the market because nobody really understands what’s coming,”, according to Vitol
    • AEGIS notes rising Iran production could pressure oil prices and potentially complicate OPEC’s plans to prop up oil prices
  • IEA dismisses oil supercycle, citing plentiful supplies (Bloomberg)
    • The agency said, “there is more than enough oil in tanks and under the ground to keep global oil markets adequately supplied.”
    • Additionally, OPEC is holding 7 MMBbl/d of spare capacity on standby. If prices heat up, the group could return production before other producers are able to capitalize on the higher prices
  • The market received discouraging data reported by the EIA on Wednesday
    • The EIA reported a build of (+) 2,396 MBbls for the week ending March 12, well above the estimate of a (+) 2,076 MBbls draw
    • Inventories for the U.S. are now at a surplus of 49.016 MMBbls to last year and a surplus of 30.38 MMBbls to the five-year average
  • Natural gas is down 2.6c to $2.502/MMBtu
  • Analysts are calling for a paltry 17 Bcf withdrawal from gas storage for the week ended March 12 (Bloomberg survey)
    • Responses from the survey ranged from -10 on the high-end to -29 on the low-end
    • Natural gas prices have continued to slide following the deep freeze in mid-February for the South. Natural gas withdrawals have underwhelmed over the past few weeks
    • A rare injection is expected in the next two weeks as weather has been mild across the lower 48, according to Platts
  • Williams’ Transcontinental Gas Pipeline objected to Mountain Valley pipe extension easement request in March 12 filing (S&P)
    • The planned Mountain Valley Pipeline Southgate expansion project is seeking to acquire Transco’s easement rights in North Carolina
    • Mountain Valley’s FERC filing shows that almost 50% of its proposed pipeline will be co-located within existing utility corridors and rights-of-way, according to the FERC filing
    • Transco’s objection follows a ruling earlier this month from the 4th Circuit that said North Carolina regulators would have to reconsider their denial of water permits for the Southgate project

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