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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Rallies as Post-Election Strike Risk Builds; Gas Falls as Surplus Breaks Tightening Streak

Today’s hedge levels

Prices as of 6:00 AM CT

NYMEX WTI$/Bbl

Prompt · Oct-26

$96.84

down 0.07vs. settle

4Q 2026$103.00
Oct–Dec CMAup 2.91
4Q 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$107.54$110.41$113.52
Floor$97.50$95.00$92.50
Cal 2027$88.43
Jan–Dec CMAup 1.23
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$92.64$95.75$98.99
Floor$85.00$82.50$80.00
Cal 2028$75.90
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.26
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$78.86$81.02$83.20
Floor$72.50$70.00$67.50

NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu

Prompt · Dec-26

$2.952

down 0.080vs. settle

Nov–Dec 2026$2.825
Nov–Decdown 0.068
Nov–Dec 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$2.98$3.07$3.15
Floor$2.70$2.60$2.50
Cal 2027$2.890
Jan–Decdown 0.050
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.01$3.17$3.35
Floor$2.80$2.70$2.60
Cal 2028$3.558
Jan–Decdown 0.015
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.80$3.98$4.16
Floor$3.40$3.30$3.20

Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.

Crude rallies as post-election strike risk builds

  • The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.88 to $103.88/Bbl Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • Crude climbed as renewed military preparations and attacks on regional energy infrastructure prompted traders to rebuild geopolitical and supply risk premium
    • Admiral Brad Cooper, the top US commander in the Middle East, briefed President Trump on military options for Iran at the White House on Thursday
    • President Trump has not authorized another military campaign, but the briefing reinforced expectations that the administration could resume strikes after the midterm elections
  • UKMTO reported three separate incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, including a tanker struck by an unidentified projectile and another vessel that caught fire
    • Maritime sources later said limpet mines had been attached to one tanker, marking the first reported successful use of the explosives in the waterway since the war began
  • Friday’s rally follows Thursday’s decline, when reports that Vice President JD Vance had reached out to Iran to revive negotiations briefly removed some risk premium from crude
  • Despite the diplomatic outreach, the threat of renewed US strikes and Iranian retaliation leaves short-term price risks skewed to the upside as the midterm elections approach
    • The Cal 2027 strip is trading above $88/Bbl, while Cal 2028 is near $76.50/Bbl, suggesting traders expect geopolitical and supply risks to persist beyond the near term

Gas falls as forecasts warm

  • Natural gas is down -7.8c to $2.874/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • Forecasts reversed some cooling yesterday with some warming this morning
    • Temperature gains were primarily present in the 6-10 day range east of the Rockies, as temperatures next week are expected to hover above 60°F on average in the Lower-48
  • EIA reports 80 Bcf build in inventories, expanding the surplus to the 5-year average by 3 to 38 Bcf
    • This marked the first time the surplus has expanded in 11 weeks, and given how temperatures are expected to hold above the 10-year average for the week ending today and next week, we could see some late injection season loosening of the balance
  • Freeport went down Monday, but has slowly worked its volumes back this week
    • Yesterday, Freeport LNG’s final noms came in at 1.76 Bcf/d, and today its nominating for full utilization at 2.2 Bcf/d as they try to stabilize three-train operations
  • Golden Pass averages 733 MMcf/d this week, with a few days at full utilization of Train 1
    • With the potential for warmer weather this winter and increased Permian associated gas, Golden Pass Trains 1 and 2 and Rio Grande LNG could provide pivotal balancing demand to a well-supplied natural gas market

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