- Crude dips as status quo signals offset regional supply risks
- The WTI prompt-month contract fell $0.39 to $88.35/Bbl Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
- President Trump wrote Thursday that the US no longer needs a deal with Iran and claimed that Washington already controls the Strait of Hormuz
- The comments suggest the administration remains comfortable maintaining the current blockade rather than immediately pursuing either a diplomatic agreement or broader military strikes, limiting crude’s near-term war risk premium
- Iran continues to maintain a hardline negotiating position while targeting vessels and maritime infrastructure across the region
- Despite the broader recovery in Gulf exports, S&P Global Commodities at Sea estimates that crude shipments through Hormuz have averaged 2.8 MMBbl/d in November, down from 3.4 MMBbl/d during the second half of October as Iranian attacks intensified
- The Houthis claimed Thursday that they attacked a pumping station on the East-West pipeline, an oil facility in Yanbu and an Aramco building in Riyadh
- No significant operational disruptions have been confirmed, while the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two Houthi drones
- Domestically, US commercial crude inventories increased by 4.7 MMBbl to 414.4 MMBbl last week, compared with expectations for a 1.1 MMBbl decline
- The larger-than-expected build adds to signs that the physical crude market is becoming less tight
Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon
Crude Dips as Status Quo Signals Offset Regional Supply Risks; Gas Inches Down ahead of Storage Report
Today’s hedge levels
Prices as of 4:59 AM CT
NYMEX WTI$/Bbl
Prompt · Nov-26
$89.05
up 1.34vs. settle
Nov–Dec 2026$87.14
Nov–Dec CMAup 2.48
| Cap | $91.97 | $94.55 | $97.11 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $82.50 | $80.00 | $77.50 |
Cal 2027$79.22
Jan–Dec CMAup 1.82
| Cap | $83.97 | $86.84 | $89.79 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $75.00 | $72.50 | $70.00 |
Cal 2028$71.47
Jan–Dec CMAup 1.13
| Cap | $75.13 | $77.44 | $79.78 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $67.50 | $65.00 | $62.50 |
NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu
Prompt · Dec-26
$3.340
up 0.125vs. settle
Cal 2027$2.976
Jan–Decdown 0.020
| Cap | $3.08 | $3.23 | $3.40 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $2.90 | $2.80 | $2.70 |
Cal 2028$3.522
Jan–Decup 0.014
| Cap | $3.71 | $3.90 | $4.09 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $3.40 | $3.30 | $3.20 |
Dec 2026 - Mar 2027$3.152
Dec–Mardown 0.007
| Cap | $3.38 | $3.55 | $3.74 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $3.00 | $2.90 | $2.80 |
Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.
- Gas moves down as temperature forecast loses some cooling
- Natural gas is down -6.5c to $3.275/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
- The Lower-48 gained 4°F overall this morning, led by warming east of the Rockies, but offset by some cooling in the Rockies and West regions
- This marks the first day since last Thursday that forecast-based weather-driven demand revision has been bearish, losing just 5 Bcf over the forecast period
- The slew of bullish weather revisions this week has moved this November from the warmest on record by a large margin of 20 HDDs, to third warmest, around 60 HDDs higher (CWG)
- Lower-48 Temperatures are expected to run roughly 2°F below normal in the 1-5 day period, before climbing back to around 5°F above normal through the remainder of the forecast (Criterion)
- Models are now forecasting daily withdrawals from storage, with Criterion forecasting today’s supply and demand balance to be at a 9.7 Bcf withdrawal
- Production is returning, though, up 1.26 Bcf this morning to 111.5 Bcf, around 4 Bcf higher than around a week ago
- The production gains are led by the South Central and Northeast, with 946 MMcf/d and 292 MMcf/d gains respectively
- The EIA reports its weekly natural gas storage report today, with median Bloomberg estimates pointing to a 62 Bcf build for the week ending 11/6
- This will likely be the last substantial build of the year, as temperatures this week have been much cooler than last week which has prompted much stronger weather-driven demand
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