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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Eases as Vance Opens Door to Iran Talks; Gas Ticks Lower as Prompt Contract Rolls

Today’s hedge levels

Prices as of 6:00 AM CT

NYMEX WTI$/Bbl

Prompt · Oct-26

$96.92

up 0.39vs. settle

4Q 2026$100.09
Oct–Dec CMAdown 0.36
4Q 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$104.48$107.45$110.60
Floor$95.00$92.50$90.00
Cal 2027$87.20
Jan–Dec CMAdown 0.57
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$92.94$96.10$99.39
Floor$82.50$80.00$77.50
Cal 2028$75.64
Jan–Dec CMAdown 0.75
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$78.29$80.37$82.45
Floor$72.50$70.00$67.50

NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu

Prompt · Nov-26

$2.817

up 0.120vs. settle

Nov–Dec 2026$2.893
Nov–Decup 0.007
Nov–Dec 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.23$3.38$3.54
Floor$2.80$2.70$2.60
Cal 2027$2.940
Jan–Decdown 0.037
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.15$3.31$3.50
Floor$2.80$2.70$2.60
Cal 2028$3.573
Jan–Decdown 0.020
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.85$4.03$4.22
Floor$3.40$3.30$3.20

Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.

Crude eases as Vance opens door to Iran talks

  • The WTI prompt-month contract fell $1.02 to $101.76/Bbl Thursday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • Crude pulled back as renewed communication between Washington and Tehran encouraged traders to remove some of the geopolitical risk premium added during Wednesday’s rally
    • Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing the resumption of US-Iran negotiations
    • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran continues to give diplomacy a chance and remains in contact with mediators over its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  • The diplomatic outreach stands in sharp contrast to continued preparations for a possible return to military action
  • US officials have warned several Middle Eastern countries and regional allies to prepare for possible renewed strikes against Iran after the midterm elections and potential Iranian retaliation against regional energy infrastructure
  • The limited decline in prompt prices and strength in deferred contracts indicate that the market is not treating the diplomatic outreach as a decisive breakthrough
    • The Cal 2027 strip is trading above $87/Bbl, while Cal 2028 remains above $75/Bbl, showing that escalation and supply risks remain embedded further along the curve (8:00 AM CT)

Gas is down as prompt contract rolls to December

  • Natural gas is down -5.9c to $2.973/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • Weather in the forecast range cooled again, reversing a warming trend that we saw last week
    • Temperatures are expected above the 10-year average through the end of the first week of November, before cooling in the second week to around 55°F on average in the L48
    • According to Criterion, Heating Degree Days will pick up above the 10-year normal on 11/7 and stay above throughout the remainder of the forecast period
    • The week ending November 13 is the forecasted end to projection season, where storage is normally forecast to peak
  • The EIA reports its weekly natural gas storage report today, with the median Bloomberg analyst estimate at 72 Bcf
    • The five-year average build is 79 Bcf, meaning this would be the eleventh week of storage tightening if the estimates hold

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