Skip to content
Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Rallies as Renewed Iran Strike Risk Grows; Gas Jumps Higher as Production Falls

Today’s hedge levels

Prices as of 5:59 AM CT

NYMEX WTI$/Bbl

Prompt · Oct-26

$96.52

down 0.34vs. settle

4Q 2026$100.45
Oct–Dec CMAup 0.53
4Q 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$105.45$108.52$111.78
Floor$95.00$92.50$90.00
Cal 2027$87.77
Jan–Dec CMAup 1.17
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$94.13$97.27$100.54
Floor$82.50$80.00$77.50
Cal 2028$76.39
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.85
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$79.84$82.04$84.29
Floor$72.50$70.00$67.50

NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu

Prompt · Nov-26

$2.697

up 0.095vs. settle

Nov–Dec 2026$2.886
Nov–Decup 0.134
Nov–Dec 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.15$3.46$3.62
Floor$2.80$2.70$2.60
Cal 2027$2.977
Jan–Decup 0.011
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.08$3.24$3.41
Floor$2.90$2.80$2.70
Cal 2028$3.593
Jan–Decup 0.005
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.74$3.91$4.09
Floor$3.50$3.40$3.30

Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.

Crude rallies as renewed Iran strike risk grows

  • The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.91 to $101.81/Bbl Wednesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that the US warned several Gulf states to prepare for a possible short, intensive military campaign against Iran following the US midterm elections
    • President Trump has not made a final decision, but the report is prompting the market to rebuild geopolitical risk premium into crude as the likelihood of post-election strikes appears to increase
  • Early results from Tuesday’s Israeli election left both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot short of the 61 seats needed to form a majority government
    • Netanyahu will remain prime minister during what could become an extended period of coalition negotiations
    • An Eisenkot-led government could modestly reduce the regional risk premium because he opposes Netanyahu’s push for regime change in Iran, although analysts expect Israel’s broader policy toward Tehran to remain hawkish
    • The market impact would also be limited by the fact that any renewed US military operation ultimately depends more on President Trump than on the composition of Israel’s next government
  • The Houthis claimed Tuesday that a ballistic missile struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s largest refinery with 550 MBbl/d of capacity
    • Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm a direct strike, although a fire near the complex was reportedly contained quickly and no supply disruption has been announced
  • Preliminary API data showed US crude inventories fell by roughly 2.0 MMBbl last week
    • The EIA will release official inventory figures later Wednesday

Gas jumps higher as production takes a step back

  • Natural gas is up 9.8c to $2.795/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • Production fell 1.3 Bcf/d this morning to 111 Bcf/d
    • This is roughly 3 Bcf/d below the recent high of 114.1 Bcf/d as South Central and the Northeast give back some volumes
    • The production dip in the South Central is partially associated with 3 150 MMcf/d Force Majeures on El Paso Natural Gas Company’s Caprock Compressor Station
  • LNG feedgas demand surged higher this morning led by another nomination recovery at Freeport LNG
    • Freeport final noms settled around 400 MMcf/d higher yesterday than Monday at just over 1 Bcf/d, but still well below full capacity at roughly 2.2 Bcf/d
  • Golden Pass LNG’s final noms were 794 MMcf/d yesterday, close to full utilization
  • Weather changes were minimal this morning, with some warming east of the Rockies mostly offset in the Rockies and to the West

Earnings season has begun

  • EQT and Expand, among some other notable names in natural gas E&P have earnings calls today, with many more reporting earnings this week and next
  • EQT acquired Range Resources at the end of Q3 in an all-stock deal, making it the largest US gas producer by volume

Want this in your inbox?

AEGIS market analysts publish research across crude, natural gas, NGLs, refined products, metals, and rates.

Subscribe to research

Previous issues of Daily First Look

This website uses cookies

We use a few essential cookies to make our site work, including one that counts how many reports you have opened. Analytics cookies are used only with your permission, and you can change your mind at any time. Learn more about cookies in our privacy policy.