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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Slips as Diplomacy Trims Escalation Premium; Gas Rebounds off Seasonal Lows

Today’s hedge levels

Prices as of 5:59 AM CT

NYMEX WTI$/Bbl

Prompt · Oct-26

$96.86

down 0.34vs. settle

4Q 2026$99.92
Oct–Dec CMAdown 1.91
4Q 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$104.10$107.13$110.35
Floor$95.00$92.50$90.00
Cal 2027$86.60
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.05
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$91.57$94.68$97.93
Floor$82.50$80.00$77.50
Cal 2028$75.54
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.50
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$78.16$80.31$82.47
Floor$72.50$70.00$67.50

NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu

Prompt · Nov-26

$2.602

down 0.038vs. settle

Nov–Dec 2026$2.752
Nov–Decdown 0.050
Nov–Dec 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.21$3.58$3.72
Floor$2.60$2.50$2.40
Cal 2027$2.966
Jan–Decup 0.006
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.05$3.21$3.37
Floor$2.90$2.80$2.70
Cal 2028$3.588
Jan–Decdown 0.006
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.89$4.07$4.27
Floor$3.40$3.30$3.20

Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.

Crude slips as diplomacy trims escalation premium

  • The WTI prompt-month contract fell $0.82 to $100.94/Bbl Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • Crude extended its pullback as increased diplomatic activity encouraged traders to remove some near-term escalation premium, although persistent regional security risks limited the decline
  • Iran has kept open its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and meets several other conditions
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Moscow on Tuesday, extending the diplomatic push ahead of the US midterm elections
    • The meetings follow talks between Iranian officials and representatives from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey in Tehran on Monday
  • The risk of further military escalation remains elevated despite the diplomatic activity
    • The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted three ballistic missiles and four drones launched by the Houthis toward Saudi Arabia’s eastern and southern regions
    • Reuters reported that Hezbollah has spent several months preparing for a possible resumption of hostilities with Israel after receiving additional funding from Iran
  • Kpler estimates that Hormuz flows remain at roughly 54% of their prewar level, although non-Iranian Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered slightly above their prewar average as producers rely more heavily on alternative routes
  • Further diplomatic progress could remove additional risk premium from crude in the near term, but reported US and Israeli preparations for possible post-election strikes are likely to keep prices supported ahead of the midterms

Gas rebounds off seasonal lows

  • Natural gas is up 6.1c to $2.663/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • Weather forecasts continue to bounce around with volatility, with the Lower-48 showing some cooling today after a stint of warming over the last week
  • L48 average temperatures fell 8°F overall over the forecast range, led by forecast temperature losses east of the Rockies (Criterion)
    • The cooling was associated with a 13.1 Bcf gain in weather driven demand according to Criterion
  • Continental average temperatures are expected to fall into the high 50’s late into the first week of November, where they are expected to hover around the 5-year average through the remainder of the forecast range
  • It’s worth noting that while Criterion’s weather model shows some average temperatures on the East Coast over the forecast range, CWG notes that many models disagree, with most skewing weather to warmer than average over the next 15 days
    • CWGs own model shows that each day in the forecast range will be warmer than the 10-year average

LNG feedgas demand settled lower yesterday

  • Freeport seems to be down again for an unplanned trip, nothing has been confirmed yet
  • Noms returned to 20.7 Bcf this early cycle led by a Freeport recovery, but this could be revised lower to around 19 Bcf later if the unplanned trip continues today

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