Crude Pulls Back as Tehran Talks Temper Escalation Risk

4Q 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$105.30	$108.40	$111.67
Floor	$97.50	$95.00	$92.50

Cap

$105.30

$108.40

$111.67

Floor

$97.50

$95.00

$92.50

Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$91.43	$94.49	$97.67
Floor	$82.50	$80.00	$77.50

Cap

$91.43

$94.49

$97.67

Floor

$82.50

$80.00

$77.50

Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$77.22	$79.37	$81.49
Floor	$72.50	$70.00	$67.50

Cap

$77.22

$79.37

$81.49

Floor

$72.50

$70.00

$67.50

Nov–Dec 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$3.05	$3.35	$3.59
Floor	$2.70	$2.60	$2.50

Cap

$3.05

$3.35

$3.59

Floor

$2.70

$2.60

$2.50

Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$3.18	$3.35	$3.52
Floor	$2.80	$2.70	$2.60

Cap

$3.18

$3.35

$3.52

Floor

$2.80

$2.70

$2.60

Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$3.73	$3.90	$4.07
Floor	$3.50	$3.40	$3.30

Cap

$3.73

$3.90

$4.07

Floor

$3.50

$3.40

$3.30

Crude pulls back as Tehran talks temper escalation risk

The WTI prompt-month contract fell $2.18 to $101.09/Bbl Monday morning (7:32 AM CT)

Crude retreated from recent highs as renewed diplomatic efforts encouraged the market to remove some of the geopolitical risk premium added during last week’s rally

Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey are meeting with Iranian authorities in Tehran on Monday, with discussions expected to focus on easing regional tensions and reviving negotiations between Washington and Tehran

President Trump said Sunday that he is weighing whether to pursue an agreement with Iran or resume military action, leaving the market caught between the prospect of de-escalation and another round of supply-threatening conflict

October has been the most active month for attacks on commercial shipping in and around the strait since the Washington Institute began tracking incidents in 2017

Kpler estimated that oil exports from Gulf producers excluding Iran averaged roughly 24.6 MMBbl/d during the week ending October 18, above the prewar average of 23.3 MMBbl/d

Flows through Hormuz itself remain below prewar levels, showing that the broader export recovery continues to depend heavily on pipelines, alternative ports and offshore transfers
The recent escalation in attacks could threaten that recovery and quickly return supply risk to the front of the market

Natural Gas Extends Large Sell-Off

Natural gas is down -12.5c to $2.515/MMBtu (As of 07:32 AM CDT)
Major warming took place over the weekend across most of the Lower-48
- Warming was lead by the key demand regions of the Northeast and the Midwest, both losing 38.5°F and 66.9°F
- Average continental temperatures hover over 60°F over most of the next two weeks, around 5°F hotter than average
- Rescom demand should come in well below the 5 year average and more than offset higher than average power demand over this time period
- Overall, Criterion estimates that the weekend weather shift cut 18.3 Bcf of weather driven demand over the forecast period

Production recovers from last week’s lows, but comes in below final noms Friday

Overall Lower-48 production sits at 112.2 Bcf this morning, a daily change of -1.6 Bcf, but over the October average of 111.8 Bcf
The South Central, with the Permian Basin and Haynesville basins among others, leads the L48 in production and is still growing month over month
- The South-Central Basin is averaging 300 MMcf/d of production more in October than it was in September

Golden Pass takes a step back

Golden pass was showing consistency last week, nominating for over 700 MMcf/d almost every day, however this morning in nominated for just 556 MMcf/d
The choppy commissioning continues for train 1 as we enter the time frame of mechanical completion of train 2, which is expected to come online in 2027

Crude Pulls Back as Tehran Talks Temper Escalation Risk; Gas Extends Large Sell-Off as Warm Weather Lingers

Today’s hedge levels

NYMEX WTI$/Bbl

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