Renewable Diesel Margins Rebound on RIN Rally, Diesel Gains
MARKET UPDATE
- US renewable diesel (RD) margins rebounded as RIN markets rallied as the BOHO spread widened sharply. Diesel strength further underpinned returns, while feedstock prices were mixed. Weaker LCFS prices provided headwinds to margins.
- The Bean Oil-Heating Oil (BOHO) spread reached the widest level in over two months at $0.98/gallon as gains in front-month CBOT soybean oil outpace Nymex ULSD. The spread reached the narrowest level in over four years at $0.56/gallon in late February.
- Used Cooking Oil (UCO) remained the highest returning feedstock. UCO imports have tempered US UCO prices despite mounting demand, though the pace of imports has slowed materially. Tallow margins remained the second-best performing feedstock at $1.47/gallon on average. Mounting tallow imports have helped preserve US Gulf coast BFT margins, though here too the pace has slowed.
- RINs rallied 9.5c/RIN, or 20% week-over-week as the BOHO spread reached the widest level in over two months. Current year vintage D4 credits have recovered more than 10c/RIN, or 23% since the start of March. The 2023 vintage market posted stouter gains, collapsing the inter-vintage spread to flat from -1c/RIN the week prior. D4 prices have lost 22c/RIN, or 26% of their value since the start of the year, reaching as low as 41c/RIN on February 22, 2024.
- California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) markets lost momentum as buying sputtered out. Credits had been trading higher on expectations of a more stringent proposal from CARB in April which may restrict certain renewable fuels and feedstocks. Prompt credits slumped $2.65/t, or 3.9% to $65.10/t. The forward structure showed $3.75/t of contango heading into December 2024, unchanged from the previous week.
SHIPPING UPDATE
- The April lineup continued to show one Singaporean RD vessel booked for California delivery, according to preliminary Vortexa data. A 345,000 Bbl vessel is set to arrive in Long Beach, California, on April 2. California took three Singaporean RD vessels during the month of March totaling 973,000 Bbl. The state is also set to take delivery of a 323,000 Bbl vessel originating from Saint Charles, Louisiana, on March 14. February saw three Singaporean RD vessels booked for California delivery totaling 754,000 Bbl. A 325,000 Bbl vessel out of Louisiana reached Long Beach, California, on February 20.
- At least three RD bookings were reported for January delivery in California totaling 629,000 Bbl. The month of January saw Oregon emerge as an alternative destination for both domestic and foreign RD production as higher Oregon LCFS prices improved RD returns in the state. A 317,000 Bbl vessel arrived in Portland, Oregon, on January 20 after departing the US Gulf Coast. A 320,000 Bbl Singaporean vessel discharged in Portland, Oregon, on January 23.
- The pace of Gulf coast feedstock imports slowed during February and the first half of March, with the pace picking up in the second half of the month. The March lineup shows at least four Chinese UCO cargos set for delivery to US Gulf coast locations. At least two Chinese UCO cargos made the journey during February arrival. A split tallow/UCO cargo arrived in New Orleans, Louisiana, on March 15 from the Netherlands. A split palm oil/UCO cargo is set to arrive in New Orleans on March 26 from India. The US Gulf coast typically imports five to six cargoes of UCO each month, primarily from China, but also Vietnam and South Korea.
- The US Gulf coast took at least two tallow vessels during the month of March originating in Brazil and Uruguay. A Brazilian tallow cargo is set to reach St Charles, Louisiana, on April 2.
- The US Gulf coast took at least one tallow cargo during the month of February, with California taking at least one vessel. The US took at least four tallow cargos in January, evenly split between California and Louisiana.
- Preliminary shipping data shows increasing levels of palm oil imports to the US with at least seven cargoes bound US destinations in March, with the US Gulf coast taking five of the vessels. Two Indian palm oil vessels have been booked for April.
- A cargo of canola oil arrived in Rodeo, California, on March 15 from Vancouver.
REGULATORY UPDATE
- GREET guidance has been delayed by a few weeks as the new greenhouse gas model awaits approval from the Treasury Department, USDA head Tom Vilsack said on March 1, according to Argus Media. The Biden administration was supposed to announce new guidance by March 1, with industry hopes pinned on a viable pathway for corn-based ethanol-to-SAF. Vilsack confirmed the model would be used to determine emissions for ethanol-to-SAF, according to Argus Media. The adjustment to the Department of Energy’s GREET model aims to ensure crediting for farming practices which reduce environmental impact like cover crops and no-till farming.
- California postponed a hearing on proposed LCFS amendments originally scheduled for March 21. CARB aims to hold a workshop in April. The 45-day public comment period is still scheduled to conclude on February 20. The move comes after the state’s Environmental Justice Advisory Committee (EJAC) urged the Board to delay its LCFS vote until July 2024 as the current plan relies too heavily on biofuels, out-of-state biogas, and biogas from dairy digesters.
- The 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals turned down a request to reconsider its November 22, 2023, decision to block SRE denials for six small refineries. Biofuel industry groups Growth Energy and Renewable Fuel Association sought a rehearing on the grounds that the denials should be brought before the DC Circuit Court. The EPA has received 12 SRE petitions since the 5th Circuit’s November ruling.
- The US Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit dismissed a SRE challenge by Hunt Refining on January 11, saying the case should be heard by the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit. Biofuel industry group Growth Energy welcomed the decision as CEO Emily Skor responded “EPA’s denials of these SRE petitions were ‘nationally applicable’ and have nationwide effect, and challenges to the denials should only have been brought in the DC Circuit.”
- On December 19, California’s Air Resources Board (CARB) released a preliminary LCFS proposal laying out amendments which nearly mirrored those in the Standardized Regulatory Impact Assessment released in September. CARB proposed a 30% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030, including a 5% step-down in 2025. This marks a 50% increase in carbon targets over the original 20% reduction target for 2030. Reductions increase to 90% by 2045 compared to a 2010 baseline. The proposal contained an automatic acceleration mechanism (AAM) which would advance stringency for a given year when unused credits more than triple average deficit generation by advancing the carbon reduction target by two years. Amendments included eliminating the exemption for intrastate jet fuel beginning in 2028 and new tracking requirements for crop-based and forestry-based feedstocks to their point of origin. CARB expects to kick off the required 45-day public comment period in January, with a public hearing set for March 21, 2024.
- The US Treasury Department issued guidance on December 15, 2023, clarifying how SAF will be eligible for tax credits worth as much as $1.75/gallon under the Inflation Reduction Act. The SAF tax credit is only issued to fuels which reduce lifecycle GHG emissions 50% below petroleum-derived jet fuel. The Treasury Department plans to calculate emissions intensity using a modified version of the GREEET model planned for March 1, 2024. The adjusted GREET model could open the door for corn-based ethanol to contribute to SAF supply.
- CARB regulators are still aiming for a Q1 2024 board vote on amendments despite missing deadline to release formal program updates the week ended December 15. The program updates are required for a 45-day public comment period prior to a board vote. The next CARB board meeting is scheduled for January 25-26, 2024, with the following set for February 22-23, 2024.
- EPA Fuel Program Center Director, Paul Machiele, said the oversupply of D4 credits is not currently a concern at the EPA as the agency’s primary driver in setting the 2023-2025 mandates was feedstock availability, according to Carbon Pulse. Machiele noted that the surge in imported feedstock was not taken into account when considering the final Set Rule, speaking at the OPIS RFS, RINs and Biofuels Forum in Chicago. Changes to exiting mandates are unlikely to be taken up during an election year. President of Advanced Biofuels Association, Michael McAdams, cited an unnamed source that the earliest the EPA would take action is 2026.
- EPA officials indicated that the next opportunity for addressing the adoption of the contentious eRIN pathway would be when the agency considers blending targets for 2026, according to EPA Fuel Programs Center director Paul Machiele when speaking at the Argus North American Biofuels, LCFS, & Carbon Markets Summit in mid-September.
- A California judge ruled that P66’s 67,000 Bbl/d RD Rodeo facility may not operate until permitting issues are resolved. The largest RD refinery conversion in the country is allowed to continue construction. The original permitting work for the plant took nearly a year to complete in May 2022. P66 aims to begin RD production at Rodeo by Q1 2024.
INDUSTRY UPDATE
- Tidewater Renewables on March 14 announced its 3,000 Bbl/d RD facility in Prince George, British Columbia is operating near nameplate capacity. Tidewater Renewables and Tidewater Midstream & Infrastructure Ltd. entered into a joint development agreement for a SAF project utilizing the Prince George facility and renewable hydrogen complex. The SAF project is aimed to achieve 6,500 Bbl/d of production.
- Bunge and Chevron broke ground on an oilseed processing plant in Destrehan, Louisiana. The joint venture aims to process soybeans as well as softseeds like winter canola and pennycress once operational in 2026.
- Chevron REG is closing two biodiesel facilities indefinitely citing poor market conditions. The 2,000 Bbl/d Madison, Wisconsin, facility and 3,000 Bbl/d Ralton, Iowa, plant come as renewable diesel and biodiesel production has outpaced mandate volumes established by the EPA’s 2023-2026 ‘Set Rule.’ The resulting deterioration in the margin environment was bound to lead to closures of less economic biodiesel producers. RD producers earn 1.7 D4 RINs per gallon compared to 1.5 D4 RINs per gallon for BD. The Madison, Wisconsin, facility is scheduled for mid-April 2024 closure.
- Braya began commercial renewable diesel production on February 22 at its Come by Chance, Newfoundland and Labrador, facility. The Canadian refiner expects production of 18,000 Bbl/d of RD, with an expansion to 35,000 Bbl/d including SAF production in the works.
- PBF reported 12,000 BBl/d of RD production during the fourth quarter 2023, down from 17,000 Bbl/d in the third quarter due to a catalyst change. St. Bernard Renewables (SBR) is a 50:50 joint venture with Italian major ENI located at PBF’s Chalmette, Louisiana, refinery. The facility has a nameplate capacity of 20,000 Bbl/d, meaning SBR was running at just 60% of capacity during the fourth quarter.
- Diamond Green Diesel’s Q4 operating income fell by 68% amid lower RD margins. RD sales averaged 3.8MM gal/d in Q4 2023, up 52% from the same period last year. Valero said its 470MM gal/y Port Arthur SAF expansion is on schedule for completion by Q1 2025.
- The EIA trimmed its 2024 and 2025 renewable diesel production and consumption forecasts. US production was projected at 226,000 Bbl/d in 2024, down 1.3% from the December outlook. EIA trimmed its 2025 production outlook by 1.4% to 290,000 Bbl/d. Demand for 2024 was projected at 249,000 Bbl/d, down 1.2% from the previous month’s estimate, while 2025 demand was cut by 1.6% to 304,000 Bbl/d. RD imports for 2024 are estimated to average 24,000 Bbl/d, up 4.3% from December projections, while imports for 2025 were unchanged at 14,000 Bbl/d.
- January total RIN generation came in at 1.89 billion credits, down 16% from the previous month’s record 2.17 billion credits, but up nearly 8% on year-ago levels. D4 generation retreated to 675 million credits, down nearly 20% from the previous month’s record 840 million credits, yet up 29% on year-ago levels. Domestic renewable diesel production accounted for 56% of total D4 output, up from 54% the month prior. Domestic renewable diesel production accounted for 49.5% of total D4 output in November and 47% in October. Foreign renewable diesel production made up 6% of total D4 generation down from 9.7% from the previous month and 11% in November. Domestic and imported biodiesel accounted for 36% of the January total, up from 35% the month prior, but down from 39% in November and 41% in October. A record 15 million D4 credits were generated across domestic and foreign SAF production, accounting for 2.2% of the January total. Foreign SAF accounted for 91% of total SAF credits.
- Bakersfield Renewable Fuels (BKRF) is aiming for a first quarter start-up of its 15,000 Bbl/d RD facility. Commercial operations are due to begin in the second quarter. BKRF is a subsidiary of Global Clean Energy Holdings.
- Oregon released second quarter Clean Fuel Program (OCFP) showed renewable diesel as the top-credit generating fuel at 35 percent of total OCFP credit generation, taking quarterly generation to a fresh record. Renewable diesel and biodiesel combined made up 25 percent of the state’s diesel pool, demonstrating the increasing penetration of RD into Oregon. OCFP credits shed nearly $60/t ahead of the release of the report yet continue to trade at hefty premiums to California LCFS credits, making Oregon an economically advantaged destination depending on freight and logistics costs.
- Montana Renewables aims to add 3,000 Bbl/d of capacity in 2025. The Great Falls plant is currently undergoing repairs to a steam recovery system and moved forward a turnaround originally planned for 2024 to November. Calumet is mulling plans to ultimately maximize SAF production at the Great Falls facility.
- Louis Dreyfus aims to build a 1.5 t/year soybean processing plant in Upper Sandusky, Ohio with construction to begin in early 2024. The plant is expected to be completed by 2026 and will have a capacity to produce 320,000 t/yr of RBD soybean oil. Earlier this year, Louis Dreyfus said it will double the capacity of its canola crushing plant in Yorkton, Saskatchewan.
Renewable Diesel
US Gulf coast RD margins rebounded as stout RIN gains and modest diesel strength played out alongside mixed feedstock prices. A material downturn in LCFS prices provided headwinds to the margin environment.
UCO remained the highest returning feedstock, $2.08/gallon, gaining 8% over the course of the week. Spot UCO prices at the US Gulf coast gave back the previous week’s gains of 1.5c/lb.
BFT margins rose $0.08/gallon week-over-week to $1.47/gallon. BFT prices remained stable at 43.50c/lb. One tallow import vessel reached Louisiana from Uruguay last week.
DCO margins firmed to $1.39/gallon as spot DCO prices capitulated. DCO prices rallied the week prior after tracking lower over the course of February and early march.
SBO margins rebounded to $0.88/gallon, up $0.05/gallon, or 6.4% week-over-week. Spot SBO prices rose 3.25c/lb, or 7% as the March CBOT SBO contract reached expiry last week.
To recap: The week ended March 8 saw RD margins slump halting a brief recovery as diesel weakness and stronger feedstock prices weighed on returns. RINs and LCFS credits posted modest gains, abating further losses. The D4 RIN market posted a stunning 12% recovery the week prior, yet trade slowed as the market awaits pending regulatory developments. This left D4 RINs largely unresponsive to a deteriorating margin environment. The BOHO spread widened nearly $0.14/gallon, or 21% to $0.78/gallon, the widest level since January 24, 2024. The BOHO spread reached as low as $0.56/gallon in February tumbling 46% since the start of the year. Deteriorating biodiesel margins led to the permanent closure of two Midwest biodiesel facilities as expanding US renewable diesel capacity outcompetes biodiesel producers.
The week ended March 15 saw RD margins rebound as RIN markets rallied in response to a wider BOHO spread. Modest diesel strength was met by mixed feedstock pricing. The BOHO spread reached the widest level in over two months at $0.98/gallon, gaining 25% over the course of the week as CBOT gains outpaced Nymex ULSD. The D4 market rallied 20% last week. The RIN market has recovered 38% from lows seen on February 22, 2024. RIN markets had been largely unresponsive to a deteriorating margin environment the week prior. LCFS prices turned downward as buying waned, weighing on RD returns.
Biodiesel margins, as measured by the soybean oil-to-heating oil (BOHO), widened to $0.98/gallon, marking the highest level in over two months. The BOHO spread gained $0.20/gallon, or 25% over the course of the week.
RIN markets rallied in response to a wider BOHO spread after proving largely unresponsive to BOHO gains the week prior. D4 credits rose 9.5c. or 20% to close the week at 56.72c/RIN. The premium for RD-generated RINs to the BOHO spread inverted to -1.5c/gallon from +2c/gallon the week prior. The spread reached as low as -6c on March 12, 2024.
Deteriorating biodiesel margins led to the decision to permanently close two Midwest biodiesel facilities as expanding US renewable diesel capacity outcompetes biodiesel producers.
The wider the BOHO spread, the weaker the margin as the main input cost for biodiesel producers, soybean oil, is more costly than the petroleum-based diesel fuel it competes with, compressing margin though the D4 RIN can contribute significantly toward making up for BOHO weakness.
The BOHO spread is a simplistic breakdown of the pulse of the biodiesel industry and is in widespread use by the industry. The BOHO spread does not account for operational costs which can vary drastically from plant to plant, nor the additional margin value afforded by credits and/or the sale of byproducts such as glycerin.
Environmental Credit Markets
RIN markets rallied 20% as the BOHO spread reached its widest level in over two months. D4 RIN prices were largely unresponsive to a deteriorating margin environment the week prior as trade slowed amid pending regulatory developments.
The spread between BD-generated D4 RINs and the BOHO reached as wide as -16c, while the spread between RD-generated RINs and the BOHO inverted to -1.5c. D4 RINs have lost 26% of their value since the start of the year.
The 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals turned down a request to reconsider its November 22, 2023, decision to block SRE denials for six small refineries. Biofuel industry groups Growth Energy and Renewable Fuel Association sought a rehearing on the grounds that the denials should be brought before the DC Circuit Court. The EPA has received 12 SRE petitions since the 5th Circuit’s November ruling.
The 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on November 22, 2023, to block denials of SREs for six refineries. The court’s decision said the EPA’s blanket SRE rejection was “impermissibly retroactive; contrary to law; and counter to the record evidence.” The decision will add a bearish undertone to an already oversupplied marketplace, save for D3 credits.
January total RIN generation came in at 1.89 billion credits, down 16% from the previous month’s record 2.17 billion credits, but up nearly 8% on year-ago levels.
D4 generation retreated to 675 million credits, down nearly 20% from the previous month’s record 840 million credits, yet up 29% on year-ago levels.
Domestic renewable diesel production accounted for 56% of total D4 output, up from 54% the month prior. Domestic renewable diesel production accounted for 49.5% of total D4 output in November and 47% in October.
Foreign renewable diesel production made up 6% of total D4 generation down from 9.7% from the previous month and 11% in November.
Domestic and imported biodiesel accounted for 36% of the January total, up from 35% the month prior, but down from 39% in November and 41% in October.
A record 15 million D4 credits were generated across domestic and foreign SAF production, accounting for 2.2% of the January total. Foreign SAF accounted for 91% of total SAF credits.
The EPA showed 35 pending SRE petitions spanning 2017-2024, as 20 previously denied exemptions are being reconsidered.
The EPA denied 26 small refinery exemptions covering the 2016-2018 and 2021-2023 compliance years on July 14. The move was consistent with the EPA’s blanket SRE denials under the Biden Administration. The two remaining SREs are for the 2018 compliance year.
In February, United Refining was denied its SRE hardship waiver by the Third Circuit court, a move which would lead to additional demand to the marketplace. Trade organization Growth Energy entered comments in support of enforcing SREs in its case against the EPA. A full denial of all SREs would represent more than 1.6 billion RINs.
Prior to this, the approval by a federal court of a SRE for Calumet Special Products 30,000 b/d refinery in Montana provided bearish undertones to RIN markets.
SREs were carved out in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for refiners producing 75,000 b/d or less which could prove compliance with the RFS—i.e., purchasing RINs—resulted “undue economic hardship.”
The EPA retroactively overturned 69 Trump-Era SREs starting in April of last year by denying 31 SRE waivers for 2018 and then denying all SRE petitions for 2016 through 2020. Denying SREs is bullish for RINs markets as refiners must enter the marketplace to purchase RINs to cover compliance obligations which were originally waived.
A court ruling earlier this year halted compliance obligations for two refineries with existing SRE petitions taking issue with the retroactive nature of the SRE denial.
Notes from the court were strongly in favor of granting the SREs, as the court made it clear it intends to handle SREs as originally intended by the RFS—i.e., waive RFS compliance if undue hardship can be demonstrated—and to allow waivers which were issued in an “unlawful retroactive application.”
On June 21, 2023, the EPA issued a historic ruling establishing the demand curve for renewable fuel use for 2023-2025. This marks the crucial expansion years for the rapidly growing renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry and fell well short of current and future production, dealing a blow to RD, SAF and BD industries.
The ‘Set Rule’ greatly underestimated the impact of surging renewable diesel growth, with the decision driven primarily by concerns over feedstock supply. In a glimmer of hope for the renewable diesel industry, the EPA left the door open for adjustments to the final ruling by taking into consideration a wide-ranging list of indicators.
LCFS Pricing
California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit markets lost momentum as buying sputtered out. Prices found support earlier this month as CARB considers more stringent CI targets and possible limitations to renewable fuels and biogas.
Prompt credits tumbled $2.65/t, or 3.9% to $65.10/t week-over-week. Gains were similar along the forward curve.
The forward structure showed $3.75/t of contango heading into December 2024, unchanged from the week prior.
California postponed an April hearing on proposed LCFS amendments originally scheduled for March 21. The 45-day public comment period concluded on February 20.
The move comes after the state’s Environmental Justice Advisory Committee (EJAC) urged the Board to delay its LCFS vote until July 2024 as the current plan relies too heavily on biofuels and out-of-state biogas. Environmentalists took particular issue with biogas from diary digesters.
On December 19, California’s Air Resources Board (CARB) released a preliminary LCFS proposal laying out amendments which nearly mirrored those in the Standardized Regulatory Impact Assessment released in September.
CARB proposed a 30% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030, including a 5% step-down in 2025. This marks a 50% increase in carbon targets over the original 20% reduction target for 2030.
Reductions increase to 90% by 2045 compared to a 2010 baseline.
The proposal contained an automatic acceleration mechanism (AAM) which would advance stringency for a given year when unused credits more than triple average deficit generation by advancing the carbon reduction target by two years.
Amendments included eliminating the exemption for intrastate jet fuel beginning in 2028 and new tracking requirements for crop-based and forestry-based feedstocks to their point of origin. CARB expects to kick off the required 45-day public comment period in January, with a public hearing set for March 21, 2024.
Prior to this proposal the prompt market had been in a choppy holding pattern since early May yet initiated a material downtrend starting in early June.
LCFS strength had been driven by trader buying and strength in futures markets as the credits become more attractive options ahead of CARB’s more stringent scoping plan.
Buying quickly turned to selling once the workshops concluded as traders became disillusioned with the timeline for the rulemaking and deemed current measures as not stringent enough to deal with supply overhang.
LCFS prices add to margin value for product intended for California, which sets the clearing price for RD fuel in the US and Canada as California RD represents the maximum achievable price for the fuel. California consumes roughly +70% of RD produced in the US for this reason, while additional barrels are sent to Oregon which also has a LCFS program in place. Washington state credits have begun trading, with back-half 2024 WCFS credits valued around $105/t.
Final Notes
Renewable diesel and biodiesel margins reflect a complex interplay between conventional fuels, renewable feedstocks, logistics, environmental credits, and regulatory momentum. With at least 1.8 billion gallons of additional RD capacity slated to come online this year, the need for protection from margin erosion is paramount.
Hedging provides this insurance.
At the same time, established facilities conducting turnaround maintenance can benefit from locking in margins and feedstock costs. Less sophisticated facilities—for example, producers equipped to run only one or two high-cost feedstocks and lacking prime market access—stand to benefit most from AEGIS hedging and advisory functions by achieving the best price possible for their product alongside feedstock optimization strategies.
Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets remain in revolutionary growth mode. The US Energy Information Agency projected RD capacity could more than double through 2025.
While returns narrow RD and SAF remain the highest returning products in the renewable space, rapid growth and regulatory changes will drive perpetual volatility.
AEGIS is here to help harness volatility to lock in predictable gains and prevent losses through innovative hedging strategies.
Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "edge," "advantage," "opportunity," "believe," or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.