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Natural GasAEGIS Market Analytics1 min read

Frigid Temperatures Cause 5 Bcf/d of Freeze-offs

Widespread cold throughout most of the central U.S. has caused freeze-offs at the wellhead. The sharp drop in production totaled over 5 Bcf/d as of Febru...

Widespread cold throughout most of the central U.S. has caused freeze-offs at the wellhead. The sharp drop in production totaled over 5 Bcf/d as of February 12 versus the previous Sunday (Feb. 7).

Natural gas production in Oklahoma's Cana-Woodford experienced the largest drop in output of just over 1.2 Bcf/d, according to PointLogic. That's a 32% drop from about 3.9 Bcf/d for the Cana-Woodford (SCOOP/STACK, Granite Wash). The chart below shows production declines for the past five days to Feb. 12 and most of the drops can be attributed to freeze-offs.Source: Wunderground.comThe sharp drop in production due to freeze-offs combined with much higher demand has already set spot market price records for certain Midcontinent gas locations. Enable Gas East, a mostly eastern-Oklahoma price, averaged $34.38/MMBtu on Thursday trading for Friday's gas deliveries, with a $18-$55 trading range, according to Platts data. Oneok was the big eye-popper after trading at an average of $76.03/MMBtu with a range of $27.50-$100 on Thursday. On Friday, these locations were heard trading upwards of $500/MMBtu for physical gas delivered over the weekend and through Tuesday - the coldest forecasted days.

Frigid Temperatures Cause 5 Bcf/d of Freeze-offs: chart 1
Source: AEGIS Hedging
Frigid Temperatures Cause 5 Bcf/d of Freeze-offs: chart 2
Source: AEGIS Hedging

Below is a snapshot of spot market gas as assessed by Bloomberg on Friday afternoon. Try not to salivate.

Frigid Temperatures Cause 5 Bcf/d of Freeze-offs: chart 3
Source: AEGIS Hedging

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