- Crude extends rally as fresh attacks keep supply risks elevated
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.72 to $87.25/Bbl Thursday morning (7:30 AM CT)
- Crude futures tick higher as Iran expands its attacks beyond commercial tankers, targeting ship-navigation systems on Oman’s Didamar Island
- The attack highlights Tehran’s ability to threaten infrastructure supporting the recovery in Gulf oil flows, although maritime sources expect the immediate effect on commercial shipping to be limited because alternative systems remain available
- Despite the recent selloff, we maintain that the risk of military escalation remains significant as the US and Iran remain far apart on the terms of a peace agreement
- Iran has said it will not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country, while Washington maintains that nuclear issues must be addressed as part of any initial negotiations
- OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report showed that OPEC+ production increased by 2.04 MMBbl/d in October to 41.23 MMBbl/d, based on secondary-source estimates
- October production reached approximately 97% of the group’s February prewar output of 42.72 MMBbl/d
- Saudi Arabia accounted for most of the increase, reporting production of 10.56 MMBbl/d in October compared with 8.37 MMBbl/d in September
- S&P Global Commodities at Sea estimates that Saudi oil loadings reached 7.5 MMBbl/d in October, the highest level since the war began
- The increase primarily reflects the recovery in exports through Yanbu on the Red Sea following the September disruption to the East-West pipeline
Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon
Crude Extends Rally as Fresh Attacks Keep Supply Risks Elevated; Gas Up as Cooler Weather Holds
Today’s hedge levels
Prices as of 4:59 AM CT
NYMEX WTI$/Bbl
Prompt · Nov-26
$87.72
up 0.34vs. settle
Nov–Dec 2026$84.66
Nov–Dec CMAdown 1.02
| Cap | $89.90 | $92.58 | $95.23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $80.00 | $77.50 | $75.00 |
Cal 2027$77.40
Jan–Dec CMAdown 0.05
| Cap | $80.11 | $82.92 | $85.81 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $75.00 | $72.50 | $70.00 |
Cal 2028$70.34
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.47
| Cap | $72.98 | $75.32 | $77.67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $67.50 | $65.00 | $62.50 |
NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu
Prompt · Dec-26
$3.215
down 0.081vs. settle
Cal 2027$2.996
Jan–Decup 0.012
| Cap | $3.13 | $3.29 | $3.46 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $2.90 | $2.80 | $2.70 |
Cal 2028$3.508
Jan–Decdown 0.020
| Cap | $3.68 | $3.86 | $4.05 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $3.40 | $3.30 | $3.20 |
Dec 2026 - Mar 2027$3.159
Dec–Mardown 0.005
| Cap | $3.40 | $3.57 | $3.78 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $3.00 | $2.90 | $2.80 |
Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.
- Gas Extends Rally ahead of a week of cooler weather
- Natural gas is up 7.2c to $3.287/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
- Weather forecast changes were mixed this morning, with the Lower-48 gaining 4.2°F overall over the forecast period
- Despite slight warming, the larger trend of cooler temperatures next week followed by slightly above average temperatures remains
- Criterion estimates that due to some regions like the Northeast and South-Central cooling on certain days in the forecast, the demand revision was slightly bullish today despite the overall warming
- Production has been inching higher, but not by enough to offset demand gains
- Production is down this morning to 109.5 Bcf/d, down from yesterday’s late nomination of 110.1 Bcf/d
- The trend of higher volumes in late noms compared to early noms continues, as yesterday’s late-cycle nomination change was 1.2 Bcf/d
- Venture Global targets July CP2 Startup
- Gulf Coast natural gas demand should benefit from Venture Global pushing the startup of its CP2 LNG production facility to July from Q3 2027
- CP Express feedgas pipeline is targeted for this December
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