- Crude rebounds as Hormuz risks persist
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.24 to $87.28/Bbl Thursday morning (7:30 AM CT)
- President Trump has said further large-scale US strikes on Iran appear unnecessary, although no concrete progress toward a peace agreement has been announced
- Meanwhile, the US naval blockade remains in place and attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz continue
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy counted 37 vessels attacked in Hormuz and surrounding waters in October, the highest monthly total since the war began, while 10 attacks have already been recorded in November
- UKMTO reported two additional incidents involving tankers over the past two days, including one vessel struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman
- The continued attacks and lack of a diplomatic breakthrough preserve the risk of renewed escalation, limiting how much of crude’s geopolitical premium can be removed
- The EIA’s latest STEO estimates that global oil demand will decline by 2 MMBbl/d in 2026 before increasing by 2 MMBbl/d in 2027
- Global inventories are forecast to build by an average of 1.46 MMBbl/d in 4Q26, with the pace accelerating to 3.5 MMBbl/d during the first half of 2027
- The agency expects WTI to average $97.32/Bbl in 4Q26 before the growing surplus pushes the 2027 average down to $80.54/Bbl
- The forecast was completed on November 5 and does not incorporate market developments since then
Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon
Crude Rebounds as Hormuz Risks Persist; Gas Extends Rally as Weather Cooling Continues
Today’s hedge levels
Prices as of 5:00 AM CT
NYMEX WTI$/Bbl
Prompt · Nov-26
$87.38
down 0.57vs. settle
Nov–Dec 2026$85.68
Nov–Dec CMAup 1.30
| Cap | $89.22 | $91.99 | $94.82 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $82.50 | $80.00 | $77.50 |
Cal 2027$77.45
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.97
| Cap | $80.32 | $83.28 | $86.24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $75.00 | $72.50 | $70.00 |
Cal 2028$69.87
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.33
| Cap | $71.99 | $74.23 | $76.48 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $67.50 | $65.00 | $62.50 |
NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu
Prompt · Dec-26
$3.296
up 0.078vs. settle
Cal 2027$2.984
Jan–Decup 0.014
| Cap | $3.10 | $3.25 | $3.41 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $2.90 | $2.80 | $2.70 |
Cal 2028$3.528
Jan–Decup 0.009
| Cap | $3.73 | $3.91 | $4.10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $3.40 | $3.30 | $3.20 |
Dec 2026 - Mar 2027$3.164
Dec–Marup 0.033
| Cap | $3.41 | $3.58 | $3.77 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $3.00 | $2.90 | $2.80 |
Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.
- Gas extends rally as forecast cooling continues
- Natural gas is up 7.1c to $3.367/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
- Lower-48 temperatures dropped again this morning, down 5.5°F overall
- The cooling was led by the South Central and Midwest regions
- Temperatures are expected to hover in the 10-year normal range next week before climbing back above normal into late November
- Since Friday, the Lower-48 has gained roughly 130 Bcf of weather driven demand in the forecast, which has sparked this sudden rally in prompt prices
- From a wholistic standpoint, modeled demand is expected to rise from 73 Bcf/d last week to nearly 90 Bcf/d for the week ending 11/20 as temperatures decline into Winter
- Total US dry gas production increased to nearly 109 Bcf/d this morning
- Production has also been gaining in the late cycle this week, especially yesterday when late cycle noms came in around 1.5 Bcf/d higher than early noms
- LNG feedgas has been holding firm above 20 Bcf/d over the last couple of weeks
- Golden Pass has commissioned above 800 MMcf/d most days in November, finally displaying consistency near full utilization right before Train 2 is expected to come online next month
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