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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Extends Decline as Trump Favors Status Quo; Gas Edges Higher on Cooler Weather and Weaker Production

Today’s hedge levels

Prices as of 4:59 AM CT

NYMEX WTI$/Bbl

Prompt · Nov-26

$87.95

down 2.96vs. settle

Nov–Dec 2026$84.38
Nov–Dec CMAdown 5.18
Nov–Dec 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$89.49$92.60$95.88
Floor$80.00$77.50$75.00
Cal 2027$76.48
Jan–Dec CMAdown 3.37
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$81.31$84.43$87.59
Floor$72.50$70.00$67.50
Cal 2028$69.54
Jan–Dec CMAdown 1.56
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$71.33$73.57$75.80
Floor$67.50$65.00$62.50

NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu

Prompt · Dec-26

$3.218

up 0.220vs. settle

Cal 2027$2.970
Jan–Decup 0.100
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.07$3.22$3.39
Floor$2.90$2.80$2.70
Cal 2028$3.519
Jan–Decup 0.042
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.70$3.88$4.06
Floor$3.40$3.30$3.20
Dec 2026 - Mar 2027$3.131
Dec–Marup 0.178
Dec 2026 - Mar 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.31$3.47$3.65
Floor$3.00$2.90$2.80

Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.

  • Crude extends decline as Trump favors status quo
    • The WTI prompt-month contract fell $2.33 to $84.52/Bbl Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
    • Following Monday’s meeting with Qatar’s prime minister, President Trump said further military action against Iran no longer appeared necessary and described the conflict as “militarily effectively over”
    • Trump said the US would maintain the status quo, including its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while remaining prepared to resume strikes if conditions change
    • The comments have further reduced crude’s near-term war risk premium, although the continued blockade means Washington will keep applying economic pressure on Tehran
    • There is little evidence that a peace agreement is significantly closer, leaving a prolonged status quo or renewed military escalation as the most likely near-term outcomes
    • Under either scenario, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would remain exposed to disruption despite the recent recovery in regional exports
    • Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was attacked in the Madinah region on Monday, underscoring the threat to regional supply routes outside Hormuz
      • The attack caused a limited fire that was extinguished, while Saudi authorities reported no injuries or disruption to pipeline operations

 

  • Gas edges up as production takes a hit despite improved prices
    • Natural gas is up 2.7c to $3.245/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CT)
    • Production took a step back, down 3.5 Bcf/d in the Lower-48 this morning
      • The decline was led by Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville
      • Expand Energy said in its earnings call that weak in-basin pricing led to curtailments in Northeast Appalachia
      • CNX Resources also mentioned curtailments in their Q3 earnings call, but mentioned hedges helped mitigate the need for shut-ins
  • Weather forecasts undergo another shift cooler
    • According to the Euro Ens model, the L48 lost 10.7°F of heat over the forecast period this morning (Criterion)
      • The move lower was led by temperature declines across all regions of the US, primarily the South Central
      • National average temperatures are expected to hover around the 10-year average starting throughout the week ending 11/20
      • Last Tuesday, the week ending 11/20 was forecast to be around 4-5°F hotter than the 10-year average (CWG)

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