- Crude extends decline as Trump downplays Iran strike risk
- The WTI prompt-month contract fell $4.10 to $86.73/Bbl Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- President Trump said over the weekend that it was “highly unlikely” further strikes on Iran would be necessary, although he added that the outlook depends on Tehran signing a “very strong agreement”
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio tempered expectations for a near-term breakthrough, saying several Iranian demands remain unacceptable and unrealistic
- While the market continues to remove part of crude’s war risk premium following the midterm elections, we maintain that the risk of military escalation remains significant without an agreement in place
- The regional security situation also remains unstable, with UKMTO reporting that a tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while exiting the Strait of Hormuz
- Another tanker was reported on fire nearby, prompting the crew to evacuate
- The Houthis also attacked an Aramco building in Riyadh, underscoring that the threat to energy infrastructure extends beyond the strait
- At the same time, the physical crude balance is loosening as Persian Gulf production and exports recover toward prewar levels
- According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC production increased by 930 MBbl/d to 22.8 MMBbl/d in October, equivalent to roughly 88% of February output
- The Cal 2027 strip fell $2.28 to $77.94/Bbl, while the Cal 2028 strip declined $0.93 to $70.67/Bbl (7:45 AM CT)
Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon
Crude Extends Decline as Trump Downplays Iran Strike Risk; Gas Jumps as Weekend Forecast Changes Shift Temperatures Cooler
Today’s hedge levels
Prices as of 1:20 AM CT
NYMEX WTI$/Bbl
Prompt · Nov-26
$90.91
up 0.27vs. settle
Nov–Dec 2026$89.56
Nov–Dec CMAup 0.26
| Cap | $94.92 | $98.04 | $101.35 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $85.00 | $82.50 | $80.00 |
Cal 2027$79.85
Jan–Dec CMAup 1.15
| Cap | $85.75 | $88.91 | $92.09 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $75.00 | $72.50 | $70.00 |
Cal 2028$71.10
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.91
| Cap | $74.31 | $76.55 | $78.80 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $67.50 | $65.00 | $62.50 |
NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu
Prompt · Dec-26
$2.998
up 0.051vs. settle
Cal 2027$2.870
Jan–Decdown 0.004
| Cap | $2.96 | $3.12 | $3.29 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $2.80 | $2.70 | $2.60 |
Cal 2028$3.477
Jan–Decdown 0.006
| Cap | $3.76 | $3.94 | $4.13 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $3.30 | $3.20 | $3.10 |
Dec 2026 - Mar 2027$2.953
Dec–Mardown 0.004
| Cap | $3.18 | $3.35 | $3.56 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $2.80 | $2.70 | $2.60 |
Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.
- Gas Jumps as weekend forecast changes shift temperatures cooler
- Natural gas is up 14.3c to $3.141/MMBtu (As of 7:45 AM CDT)
- The Lower-48 cooled over the weekend, with average temperatures dropping in most regions across the country
- The Northeast, Midwest, and Southeast led the move colder, losing between 14-22°F each
- This corresponds with a significant bullish weather driven demand revision of 75 Bcf
- Next weekend is expected to have above average HDDs, with average continental temperatures for the week ending 11/20 expected to be 47.5°F
- Production remains below last month’s levels, at 109.8 Bcf/d this morning (Criterion)
- Feedgas demand climbs to a fresh monthly high, at 21.6 Bcf/d
- The surge in demand was led by Golden Pass commissioning progress and consistency at Freeport; both facilities are at or very near full utilization
- Rio Grande, Port Arthur, and Golden Pass Trains 2 and 3 all come online mostly in 2027, which will be required to increase feedgas demand significantly from current levels
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