- Crude edges higher as Hormuz risks persist
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.50 to $91.02/Bbl Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
- UKMTO has reported at least five incidents involving vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz since Sunday, keeping shipping risks elevated despite ongoing diplomatic efforts
- A senior Iranian official said Thursday that Tehran submitted a proposal covering its nuclear program to the US through Qatar
- Iran reportedly will not discuss the proposal until Washington addresses its seven demands, highlighting the significant gap that remains between the two sides
- We maintain that the risk of military escalation remains high as negotiations continue without a breakthrough and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted
- S&P Global Commodities estimates that Middle Eastern crude exports averaged 15.2 MMBbl/d in October, equivalent to roughly 80% of prewar levels
- Although the election result has increased political pressure on Trump to reach an agreement, Tehran may view his weakened domestic position as leverage to demand greater concessions, potentially complicating negotiations
- Meanwhile, physical crude markets are showing signs of loosening as Saudi Aramco cut the December OSP for Arab Light crude sold to Asia by $2/Bbl
- The grade will be priced at a $7/Bbl discount to the Oman/Dubai average, compared with a $5/Bbl discount for November
Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon
Crude Edges Higher as Hormuz Risks Persist; Gas Climbs Over $3/MMBtu
Today’s hedge levels
Prices as of 4:59 AM CT
NYMEX WTI$/Bbl
Prompt · Nov-26
$90.65
up 1.97vs. settle
Nov–Dec 2026$89.30
Nov–Dec CMAup 1.84
| Cap | $94.10 | $97.07 | $100.18 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $85.00 | $82.50 | $80.00 |
Cal 2027$78.70
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.36
| Cap | $83.03 | $86.04 | $89.02 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $75.00 | $72.50 | $70.00 |
Cal 2028$70.19
Jan–Dec CMAdown 0.33
| Cap | $72.54 | $74.72 | $76.90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $67.50 | $65.00 | $62.50 |
NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu
Prompt · Dec-26
$2.947
down 0.012vs. settle
Cal 2027$2.874
Jan–Decdown 0.018
| Cap | $2.97 | $3.12 | $3.29 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $2.80 | $2.70 | $2.60 |
Cal 2028$3.483
Jan–Decdown 0.029
| Cap | $3.78 | $3.97 | $4.17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $3.30 | $3.20 | $3.10 |
Dec 2026 - Mar 2027$2.957
Dec–Marup 0.036
| Cap | $3.21 | $3.39 | $3.61 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $2.80 | $2.70 | $2.60 |
Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.
- Gas climbs over $3 ahead of a cooler weekend
- Natural gas is up 5.8c to $3.005/MMBtu (As of 7:30 CT)
- Rescom picked up to a seasonal high this morning to 21.1 Bcf/d
- Forecasted temperatures cooled slightly again today, down more than 4°F in overall population weighted average temperature over the forecast period
- The cooling was led by the regions east of the Rockies
- HDDs are still below normal every day in the forecast, but some days are approaching with the 10-year normal line with the recent days of cooling in the forecast
- The latest numbers show 2026 running well below normal for HDDs
- CWG forecasts this to be the hottest November on record, predicting the month to amass just 418 HDDs, 18 less than the previous record set in 2001
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