- Crude slides as midterm setback raises pressure for Iran deal
- The WTI prompt-month contract fell $1.94 to $94.15/Bbl Wednesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
- Democrats captured both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, delivering a significant political setback to President Trump and helping remove part of crude’s geopolitical risk premium
- Trump acknowledged that the Iran war and resulting increase in energy prices contributed to the Republican losses
- Trump told the Financial Times that the US had no immediate plans for further strikes, although Iranian officials stressed that the two sides remain far from an agreement
- While the election result may increase pressure on the administration to reach a deal, we continue to see significant risk of military escalation and maintain that short-term price risks remain skewed to the upside
- ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber said nearly 1 billion barrels of crude have been drawn from global inventories since the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz began, substantially reducing the market’s supply buffers
- The API reported an unexpected 5.27 MMBbl decline in US crude inventories last week, compared with expectations for a 2.1 MMBbl build
- The EIA will publish official inventory data later Wednesday
Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon
Crude Slides as Midterm Setback Raises Pressure for Iran deal; Gas Steady as Production and Heating Demand Remain Low
Today’s hedge levels
Prices as of 4:59 AM CT
NYMEX WTI$/Bbl
Prompt · Nov-26
$95.78
down 0.27vs. settle
Nov–Dec 2026$94.05
Nov–Dec CMA
| Cap | $98.65 | $101.66 | $104.83 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $90.00 | $87.50 | $85.00 |
Cal 2027$83.64
Jan–Dec CMAdown 1.24
| Cap | $88.04 | $91.13 | $94.35 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $80.00 | $77.50 | $75.00 |
Cal 2028$73.42
Jan–Dec CMAdown 1.16
| Cap | $76.51 | $78.77 | $81.07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $70.00 | $67.50 | $65.00 |
NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu
Prompt · Dec-26
$2.895
up 0.039vs. settle
Cal 2027$2.888
Jan–Decup 0.015
| Cap | $3.01 | $3.16 | $3.33 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $2.80 | $2.70 | $2.60 |
Cal 2028$3.522
Jan–Decdown 0.006
| Cap | $3.71 | $3.89 | $4.08 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $3.40 | $3.30 | $3.20 |
Dec 2026 - Mar 2027$2.888
Dec–Mardown 0.005
| Cap | $3.03 | $3.20 | $3.41 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | $2.80 | $2.70 | $2.60 |
Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.
- Gas holds steady as production and heating demand remain low
- Natural gas is up 2.3c to $2.918/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
- Production came in this morning at 108.6 Bcf/d, down 300 MMcf/d from yesterday’s final noms
- Weather shifts this week in the forecast period have been minimal, but today some mild cooling in the Rockies, West, and Midwest led the weather driven demand outlook around 10 Bcf higher overall (Criterion)
- Early estimates for mid-November show temperatures hovering 5-10°F above the 10-year average
- The Permian production growth story is in question now after prominent Permian producer’s comments on earnings calls
- Chevron and Diamondback, amongst others, showed caution at increasing Permian production in the near-term future
- Concerns are centered around the elevated crude prices lasting too long to justify a front-loaded ramp up in production, as well as oilfield inflation concerns
- While ExxonMobil was more aggressive, other companies holding production steady could limit associated gas growth out of the Permian this Winter
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