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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Tumbles as Diplomacy Gains Momentum; Gas Ticks up as Forecasts Cool Slightly

Today’s hedge levels

Prices as of 12:48 AM CT

NYMEX WTI$/Bbl

Prompt · Oct-26

$96.94

up 0.10vs. settle

4Q 2026$102.88
Oct–Dec CMAdown 0.12
4Q 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$107.21$110.06$113.08
Floor$97.50$95.00$92.50
Cal 2027$88.21
Jan–Dec CMAdown 0.22
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$92.15$95.23$98.44
Floor$85.00$82.50$80.00
Cal 2028$75.58
Jan–Dec CMAdown 0.32
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$78.29$80.47$82.64
Floor$72.50$70.00$67.50

NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu

Prompt · Dec-26

$2.898

down 0.054vs. settle

Cal 2027$2.870
Jan–Decdown 0.020
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$2.96$3.12$3.29
Floor$2.80$2.70$2.60
Cal 2028$3.531
Jan–Decdown 0.027
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.73$3.90$4.08
Floor$3.40$3.30$3.20
Dec 2026 - Mar 2027$2.888
Dec–Mar
Dec 2026 - Mar 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.03$3.20$3.41
Floor$2.80$2.70$2.60

Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.

Crude tumbles as US-Iran diplomacy gains momentum

  • The WTI prompt-month contract fell $4.44 to $99.68/Bbl Monday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • Crude dropped as traders removed part of the geopolitical risk premium following reports citing IRNA that Iran’s Supreme Leader had authorized the government to pursue negotiations with the US
    • Iranian officials also completed a third consecutive day of talks with Qatari mediators, with a draft proposal now circulating and another meeting under consideration
  • Axios reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed President Trump during a Saturday phone call to resume strikes against Iran immediately after Tuesday’s midterm elections
    • Trump reportedly favors giving the diplomatic process more time before deciding whether to resume military action
  • Previous reports of imminent diplomatic breakthroughs have repeatedly failed to produce durable agreements, leaving uncertainty over whether the latest talks will lead to meaningful de-escalation
  • The apparent shift from Tehran has removed some near-term geopolitical risk premium from crude, but the possibility of renewed US strikes after the midterm elections remains a significant upside risk to prices

Gas ticks up as forecasts move mid-November slightly cooler

  • Natural gas is up 5.0c to $2.948/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • Lower-48 average temperatures are expected to decline over the next two weeks from near 60s today to sub 50s in two weeks
  • Despite the drop, temperatures are forecast to remain above the 10-year average over the course of the forecast range
  •  The higher-than-average temperatures could contribute to an extended period of injections
  • Analyst estimates for peak storage this year have trended higher over the last few weeks from around 3.8 Tcf to above 3.9 Tcf now as mild weather delays the onset of withdrawals

· Production took a hit to start the week

  • Total Lower-48 production fell this morning by 2.6 Bcf/d to 109.6 Bcf/d (Criterion)
  • Appalachia shed nearly 2 Bcf/d of gas production over the weekend, leading the decline
  • Canadian import volumes posted a notable offsetting gain, up 600 MMcf/d to 4.8 Bcf/d

· Feedgas demand falls to start the week

  • Freeport LNG volumes continue to underperform, nominating for 1,390 MMcf/d this morning
  • Gulf South has capped Stratton Ridge deliveries to Freeport LNG at 550 MMcf/d until further notice, which is roughly 38% of normal delivery volume

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