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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Rallies as Regional Escalation Risks Build; Gas Heads for Large Weekly Drop

Today’s hedge levels

Prices as of 5:59 AM CT

NYMEX WTI$/Bbl

Prompt · Oct-26

$96.17

up 0.74vs. settle

4Q 2026$99.90
Oct–Dec CMAup 1.86
4Q 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$104.31$107.47$110.78
Floor$95.00$92.50$90.00
Cal 2027$86.43
Jan–Dec CMAdown 0.49
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$91.05$94.03$97.12
Floor$82.50$80.00$77.50
Cal 2028$75.73
Jan–Dec CMAdown 1.19
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$78.54$80.69$82.86
Floor$72.50$70.00$67.50

NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu

Prompt · Nov-26

$2.796

up 0.006vs. settle

Nov–Dec 2026$2.891
Nov–Decdown 0.042
Nov–Dec 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.06$3.29$3.54
Floor$2.80$2.70$2.60
Cal 2027$2.964
Jan–Decdown 0.043
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.04$3.19$3.36
Floor$2.90$2.80$2.70
Cal 2028$3.578
Jan–Decdown 0.030
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.85$4.02$4.20
Floor$3.40$3.30$3.20

Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.

Crude rallies as regional escalation risks build

  • The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.84 to $101.31/Bbl Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • Yemen’s Houthis claimed they targeted Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu on the Red Sea, although the claim has not been independently verified
    • On Thursday, Saudi Aramco instructed employees to leave its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely, although the company did not disclose the reason
  • The market remains sensitive to potential attacks on Yanbu, a critical export hub and the western terminus of Saudi Arabia’s 7 MMBbl/d East-West pipeline
  • Limited diplomatic progress between the US and Iran has reduced expectations for an agreement before the US midterm elections, prompting the market to rebuild some escalation risk into crude prices
    • The repricing is also extending further along the curve, with the Cal 27 strip trading above $86/Bbl while Cal 28 remains just below $76/Bbl (7:58 AM CT)
  • The New York Times reported that the US and Israel have developed plans for a renewed intensive military operation against Iran that could begin after the midterm elections, although no final decision has been announced

Gas moves lower as it heads for a more than 30c weekly drop

  • Natural gas is down -8.9c to $2.707/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • Temperatures are expected to rise into the next week and a half, up around 3-5°F above the 10-year average
  • HDDs are expected to pick up in the late forecast period, reaching around 8 by the end of the First week of November (Criterion)
  • L48 power demand is currently at 30 Bcf/d and rescom demand is at 15 Bcf/d
    • Mild shoulder season temperatures continue to provide less weather driven demand
  • Pipeline supplying Rio Grande LNG awaits first gas
    • The Bay Runner pipeline, which will deliver feedgas to NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG project, is complete but is awaiting commissioning of the LNG facility before beginning gas flows (S&P)
    • The project is expected to ramp and support Rio Grande’s commissioning progress through 2027
    • The pipeline is a roughly 145-mile extension of the Whistler pipeline system that will move 2.6 Bcf/d from Agua Dulce

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