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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Rallies on Persistent Conflict Risk; Gas Extends Losses as Forecasts Warm Into November

Today’s hedge levels

Prices as of 7:29 PM CT

NYMEX WTI$/Bbl

Prompt · Oct-26

$96.02

up 0.03vs. settle

4Q 2026$97.47
Oct–Dec CMAdown 0.70
4Q 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$101.52$104.54$107.65
Floor$92.50$90.00$87.50
Cal 2027$86.00
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.01
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$89.97$92.82$95.75
Floor$82.50$80.00$77.50
Cal 2028$75.25
Jan–Dec CMAup 0.74
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$77.62$79.76$81.89
Floor$72.50$70.00$67.50

NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu

Prompt · Nov-26

$3.058

down 0.058vs. settle

Nov–Dec 2026$3.148
Nov–Decdown 0.064
Nov–Dec 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.36$3.53$3.71
Floor$3.00$2.90$2.80
Cal 2027$3.093
Jan–Decunchanged 0.000
Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.22$3.38$3.55
Floor$3.00$2.90$2.80
Cal 2028$3.639
Jan–Decup 0.012
Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap$3.85$4.02$4.21
Floor$3.50$3.40$3.30

Indicative swap levels and costless collars; each column is one cap / floor pair. Talk to your AEGIS advisor for firm pricing.

Longer-dated crude rallies on persistent conflict risk

  • The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.31 to $104.97/Bbl Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • Longer-dated contracts continued to strengthen as the market priced greater risk of a prolonged regional conflict
    • The Cal 2027 and Cal 2028 strips traded above $87/Bbl and $76/Bbl this morning, respectively
  • Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref hardened Tehran’s position on the Strait of Hormuz as attacks on regional shipping intensified
    • “To safeguard our security, we have no choice but to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz,” Aref said Monday
  • At least 23 incidents involving vessels were recorded in or near the Strait of Hormuz during the first two weeks of October
    • The latest wave has also caused more extensive damage, including the sinking of two commercial vessels last week
  • The Trump administration is creating a process that would allow investors to purchase and refurbish sanctioned tankers for use in legitimate trade
    • The vessels would be limited to transporting non-sanctioned crude, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright
    • Wright said the program could eventually add “dozens” or even “hundreds” of tankers to the legitimate fleet

Gas extends losses as forecasts for early November look hot

  • Natural gas is down -7.2c to $2.986/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • The L48 gained heat in the forecast range this morning, led by the Southeast, Northeast, and West in the 6-15 day range
    • According to Criterion, this shift in temperatures is associated with an 11.4 Bcf loss in weather driven demand
    • To start November, L48 average temperatures look to be hovering over 60°F which is 3-4°F above average
    • A prolonged shoulder season could extend injection season, raising peak storage in mid-November
  • Production experiences a Tuesday drop
    • Production slipped 1.7 Bcf/d this morning to 109.6 from 111.3 Bcf/d (Criterion)
    • Losses were led almost entirely by the South Central, which gave back over 1.2 Bcf/d this morning
  • Golden Pass continues setting records, nominating for 802 MMcf/d this morning
    • The train continues to push towards full utilization, which could be reached as early as next week

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