Crude Slips as Gulf Export Risks Return

4Q 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$103.24	$106.41	$109.71
Floor	$92.50	$90.00	$87.50

Cap

$103.24

$106.41

$109.71

Floor

$92.50

$90.00

$87.50

Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$90.01	$92.90	$95.87
Floor	$82.50	$80.00	$77.50

Cap

$90.01

$92.90

$95.87

Floor

$82.50

$80.00

$77.50

Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$78.46	$80.63	$82.87
Floor	$70.00	$67.50	$65.00

Cap

$78.46

$80.63

$82.87

Floor

$70.00

$67.50

$65.00

Nov–Dec 2026 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$3.39	$3.59	$3.80
Floor	$3.10	$3.00	$2.90

Cap

$3.39

$3.59

$3.80

Floor

$3.10

$3.00

$2.90

Cal 2027 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$3.22	$3.38	$3.55
Floor	$3.00	$2.90	$2.80

Cap

$3.22

$3.38

$3.55

Floor

$3.00

$2.90

$2.80

Cal 2028 costless collars: each column is one cap and floor pair
Cap	$3.82	$3.99	$4.17
Floor	$3.50	$3.40	$3.30

Cap

$3.82

$3.99

$4.17

Floor

$3.50

$3.40

$3.30

Crude slips as Gulf export risks return

The WTI prompt-month contract fell $0.55 to $100.86/Bbl Monday morning (7:53 AM CT)

Persian Gulf crude flows have come under renewed pressure after recovering to near prewar levels in recent weeks

Kpler estimates that flows fell to a seven-day average of roughly 8.5 MMBbl/d last week from more than 20 MMBbl/d the previous week

UKMTO posted two new regional incident reports over the weekend and warned that many attacks are never formally reported

UKMTO said it often learns of additional incidents through other sources but cannot publish them without sufficient verification, suggesting the actual number of attacks could be materially higher

A Saudi military helicopter crashed near the Yemeni border over the weekend, killing two crew members

The Saudi-led coalition attributed the crash to a technical malfunction, while the Houthis claimed they shot down the aircraft

The incident follows an escalation in Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and energy facilities, sustaining risks to the kingdom’s production and export infrastructure

The Cal 2027 and Cal 2028 strips traded above $85/Bbl and $75/Bbl, respectively, as of 8:15 AM CT

Strength in the calendar strips suggests geopolitical and supply risks are supporting prices beyond the prompt market

Gas moves up on mixed shoulder season forecast shifts

Natural gas is up 2.6c to $3.142/MMBtu (As of 07:53 AM CDT)
The overall L48 lost heat this morning, led by large losses in the Northeast
- Most of the cooling was centered in the 1-10 day range, L48 population weighted temperatures are expected to hover around 60°F for the next 3 storage weeks
- Warming in the Rockies partially offset losses in the Northeast in terms of weather driven demand, but the revision was still bullish at 12.7 Bcf (Criterion)
L48 steps back above 110 Bcf/d led by modest gains in the Northeast
- While Pre-FM levels on MXPSEG are still yet to be reached, the Force Majeure is lifted and volumes should steadily return to normal
- Appalachia led the overall production recovery, gaining almost 1 Bcf/d since Friday
- October production averaged 110.9 Bcf/d, a pullback from September which was at 112.1 Bcf/d (Criterion)
- - For further context though, the overall production story has been bearish this year primarily due to strong Permian production, as October last year only averaged 106.7 Bcf/d
- Golden Pass ramp up finally shows signs of sustained consistency
- - Golden Pass settled at 711 MMcf/d on Sunday, which is a new record for the terminal, and close to full utilization of train 1 at 800 MMcf/d
  - The CCO of the Joint venture acknowledged “ups and downs” of commissioning the production, saying “learning curves will be addressed in trains 2 and 3” (S&P)
  - - Both trains 2 and 3 are slated for commissioning next year, and once fully operational will add another 1.6-1.7 Bcf/d of feedgas demand to the Gulf Coast

Crude Slips as Gulf Export Risks Return; Gas Moves Up on Mixed Shoulder Season Forecast Shifts

Today’s hedge levels

NYMEX WTI$/Bbl

NYMEX Henry Hub$/MMBtu