WTI Breaks Above $100/Bbl; Gas Extends Losses as Heat Leaves Forecast

WTI breaks above $100/Bbl

• The WTI front-month contract rose $4.01 to $100.06/Bbl Thursday morning (8:05 AM CT)
• Iran has signaled that it does not intend to back down, with senior officials saying the country has rebuilt its military capabilities
• The Wall Street Journal reported that senior US officials have raised the possibility that Iran may not yield to increased pressure and that the conflict could continue through the remainder of President Trump’s term
• The latest EIA STEO extended its OPEC production revisions into Q1 2027, though projected full-year 2027 inventory builds edged higher to 4.9 MMBbl/d following upward revisions to production from the UAE, Guyana and the US
• • Despite the larger projected builds, the EIA raised its 2027 WTI price forecast by $4.35/Bbl from last month to $69.74/Bbl
• The latest escalation between the US and Iran has pushed the WTI Bal 2026 strip to roughly $93.08/Bbl, while the Cal 2027 strip is trading near $75.95/Bbl (8:05 AM CT)

Gas extends losses on cooling in the forecast period

• Natural gas is down -5.4c to $2.768/MMBtu (As of 08:05 AM CDT)
• Power demand fell this morning by 1.4 Bcf/d to 50.4 Bcf/d as the L48 starts to cool
• Production also slipped 1.4 Bcf/d this morning
• • Appalachian producers have mentioned scaling back some production this shoulder season
• The L48 cooled nearly 10°F across the forecast range today, with losses centered in the 6-10 day range
• • CDD dropoff from around 10 to 4 is now pushed up around 1 day sooner than previously

Golden Pass train 1 operations become more consistent

• Golden Pass LNG exported its latest cargo on Sept. 4 according to S&P
• The loading occurred 16 days after the previous export, signaling a more consistent pattern
• The plant nominated 340 MMcf/d, which is still much less than Train 1 full utilization at 800 MMcf/d