Crude Jumps as Houthis Target Saudi Infrastructure; Gas Edges Lower on Mixed Forecast Shifts

Crude jumps as Houthis target Saudi energy infrastructure

• The WTI front-month contract rose $2.00 to $93.48/Bbl Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• Yemen’s Houthis claimed they targeted Saudi Arabia’s 400 MBbl/d Jazan refinery and other facilities supplying the domestic market, forcing the complex to shut down
• Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said refined-product markets are showing signs of tightness even as the broader outlook for crude remains relatively balanced
• • “It’s pretty, pretty tight and inflexible out there as far as the market is concerned,” Hardy said, adding that inventories are near the bottom of their range
• Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 and December 2027 oil price forecasts by $5/Bbl based on new assumptions that Middle East supply disruptions will persist into next year
• • The bank now forecasts WTI at $80/Bbl for December 2026 and $75/Bbl for December 2027
  • “Markets are increasingly pricing a prolonged Mideast conflict,” Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven said, adding that “risks to our price forecast remain significantly tilted to the upside”
• Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Iran plans to announce a new maritime exclusion zone in the Gulf and establish a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days
• • Rezaei said vessels entering the Iranian zone without authorization could be added to an Iranian sanctions list

Gas edges lower on mixed forecast shifts

• Natural gas is down -1.0c to $2.965/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
• The L48 had polarized forecast changes
• • The Midwest and Southeast lost close to 40°F over forecast period combined
  • The rest of the L48 offset the losses, gaining heat in the 15-day period
• The initial forecast for September 19-22 is much cooler than now
• • L48 average temps are expected to fall to 70°F in late September, down from close to 80°F tomorrow (Criterion)
  • A quicker start to shoulder season could raise storage levels heading into withdrawal season

LNG firms to 19.7 Bcf/d ahead of multiple shoulder season maintenance events

• Feedgas demand will experience approximately 0.4-0.6 Bcf/d of demand loss to maintenance events for the following two months
• Cove point liquefaction maintenance will run 23 days from late Sep to early Oct, making up the majority of the demand loss

Southeast spot gas prices reach multi-year highs amidst heatwave (S&P)

• Cash prices at Transco Zone 5 South, Transco Zone 4, and Florida Gas Zone 3 all rose above $7.60/MMBtu on Sept 4