Crude Rises as Iran Renews Regional Strikes; Gas Approaches $3 ahead of EIA Storage Print

Crude rises as Iran renews regional strikes

• The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.30 to $92.31/Bbl Thursday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• Iran’s military said it launched missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait and the UAE
• President Trump suggested any renewed US strikes on Iran would likely be brief, potentially signaling that the administration does not intend to restart a broader military campaign
• The US military escorted tankers carrying 18 MMBbl of oil through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to CNN, while the administration estimates overall flows through the waterway have averaged roughly 8 MMBbl/d
• • With US retail diesel prices reaching their highest level since mid-2022, analysts believe the administration could begin prioritizing product tankers, although refined-product shipments may be more operationally constrained than crude flows
• Gains remained concentrated at the front of the curve, while longer-dated contracts moved lower, with the Cal 2027 strip falling $0.89 to $72.88/Bbl (7:30 AM CT)
• Domestically, US crude inventories declined by nearly 4.5 MMBbl last week, marking their first draw since July, according to the EIA, while Cushing stocks edged higher to 22.5 MMBbl

Gas approaches $3/MMbtu as market braces for EIA storage print

• Natural gas is up 3.8c to $2.994/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
• L48 forecasted temperatures experienced a minimal shift day over day
• • The Northeast and Midwest cooled in the back half of the forecast range, while the South Central and West gained heat
• Feedgas demand rebounds, with Sabine and Golden Pass leading the recovery
• • Sabine Pass gained 306 MMcf/d to 4.19 Bcf/d, and Golden Pass gained 290 to 566 MMcf/d

The EIA releases its weekly natural gas storage report today, with median analyst expectations pointing to a 31 Bcf injection

• This would be a step up over the previous 2 weeks, which were both around 15 Bcf shy of this number
• The surplus to the 5 year average has shrunk by 31 Bcf over the previous two reports to 167 Bcf