Skip to content
Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Slips as Oil Transits Continue in the 6-8 MMBbl/d Range; Gas Retreats as Contract Rolls to October

Crude slips as hopes for broader US-Iran agreement fade

  • The WTI prompt-month contract fell $0.79 to $82.74/Bbl Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • Iran and Oman continue to negotiate a revenue-sharing arrangement for tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but President Trump reportedly told mediators that he is unwilling to revive the terms of the June ceasefire agreement with Tehran (WSJ)
    • Meanwhile, oil flows through the strait are increasing as Gulf producers restore exports despite persistent risks to commercial shipping
  • Bloomberg estimates that approximately 6–8 MMBbl/d of crude is now moving through the waterway
  • Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of A/S Global Risk Management said the market is becoming more comfortable with the disruption because significantly more oil is transiting Hormuz than during the opening months of the war
  • Separately, Venezuela is reportedly considering withdrawing from OPEC, just several months after the UAE left the producer group

Gas retreats as temperature gains pull back

  • Natural gas is down -6.5c to $2.849/MMBtu (As of 07:45 AM CDT)
  • The L48 cooled 4.3°F overall day over day (Criterion)
  • Freeport noms remained high for the second day in a row as multi-week maintenance comes to an end
    • L48 feedgas demand stayed around 19.3 Bcf/d this morning
  • Tropical Storm Dolly’s strength and path have been revised
    • The NHC advisory has the storm staying South of the L48, on a collision course with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
    • Most models still limit the intensity of the storm, but a few are forecasting it to be at least a Cat 1 Hurricane
      • As of now, the storm poses little risk to L48 natural gas demand

Want this in your inbox?

AEGIS market analysts publish research across crude, natural gas, NGLs, refined products, metals, and rates.

Subscribe to research

Previous issues of Daily First Look

This website uses cookies

We use a few essential cookies to make our site work, including one that counts how many reports you have opened. Analytics cookies are used only with your permission, and you can change your mind at any time. Learn more about cookies in our privacy policy.