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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Swings as Pakistan Signals Optimism; Gas Stalls as Temperature Forecasts Falter

Crude swings as Pakistan signals optimism on Iran deal

  • The prompt-month WTI contract rose $0.27 to $84.20/Bbl Tuesday morning, giving back earlier gains (7:30 AM CT)
  • Pakistan Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said recent developments suggest Iran and the US may be moving closer to some form of agreement
    • The comments prompted some profit taking as traders interpreted the more optimistic tone as a possible sign that communication between Washington and Tehran is continuing, according to Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, analyst at Global Risk Management
  • President Trump has indicated he is willing to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than return to military action, while his demand that Tehran pay reparations could complicate any future agreement
  • Meanwhile, the UK navy reported an incident involving a container ship and military forces in the Gulf of Oman
    • A separate incident was reported off Yemen’s Red Sea coast, where a cargo vessel said it had been struck by an unidentified projectile

Natural gas price stalls as temperature forecasts falter

  • Natural gas is down -0.6c to $2.788/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • Production slipped 1.2 Bcf/d this morning, lead by drops in the Permian and Haynesville (Criterion)
  • The South Central, which lead yesterday’s large model shift, gave back some heat in the forecast this morning, losing 4.6°F over the fortnight
    • The bulk of the forecasted change yesterday remains in tact, with the average L48 expected to sit above the 10 year average over the forecast period
  • L48 feedgas demand lost nearly 900 MMcf/d this morning
    • Sabine Pass lead the losses at -630 MMcf/d, however no pipes appear to have cut deliverability

MDU targets Q4 for FERC filing on 1.4 Bcf/d Bakken egress project (S&P)

  • MDU has secured almost 1.2 Bcf/d of precedent agreements for Bakken East natural gas pipeline project
  • The pipeline system will run east to west in North Dakota, boosting egress from Bakken Shale

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