Skip to content
Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Prices Retreat Despite Persistent Supply Risk; Gas Steady

Crude prices retreat despite persistent supply risks

  • The WTI prompt-month contract fell $2.85 to $89.34/Bbl on Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • The US has now conducted 13 consecutive days of strikes on Iran, while President Trump threatened additional military action if attacks in the Red Sea continue
  • Despite the Houthi blockade, Bloomberg reported millions of barrels of Saudi crude continue to move from the kingdom’s Red Sea coast into the global market
    • Analysts at HSBC Holdings said traffic through the Strait of Hormuz averaged only four ships per day over the past week, compared with 13 the previous week and 29 during the first week of July
    • The analysts warned that a prolonged disruption could eventually drive commodity prices sharply higher as available inventories are depleted

Gas steady as storage report and weather changes bring little change

  • Natural gas is up 2.7c to $2.943/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • The EIA reported its weekly change in natural gas inventories yesterday, reporting a 32 Bcf build
    • This was roughly in line with the median analyst estimate of 34 Bcf
  • Overall weather change this morning was minimal, with the L48 only gaining around 1°F over the forecast period
    • Gains in the Rockies were once again offset by cooling in the East regions
  • LNG feedgas ticked higher to nearly 18 Bcf/d this morning, lead by increased daily nominations at Freeport to 1.08 Bcf/d
    • The outlook for upcoming week firms to around 18.7 Bcf/d as commissioning progress at Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage 3 provide upside against the lingering Freeport maintenance
  • Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) tests shipper appetite for new Appalachian capacity (NGI)
    • TGP started a nonbinding open season for its 219 South Project to serve rising power demand from Pennsylvania toward the Gulf Coast (through Tennessee)
    • The project would add 530 MMcf/d of north-to-south firm transportation along Kinder Morgan’s 200 Line
    • Service is targeted to begin in December 2029

Want this in your inbox?

AEGIS market analysts publish research across crude, natural gas, NGLs, refined products, metals, and rates.

Subscribe to research

Previous issues of Daily First Look

This website uses cookies

We use a few essential cookies to make our site work, including one that counts how many reports you have opened. Analytics cookies are used only with your permission, and you can change your mind at any time. Learn more about cookies in our privacy policy.