Oil Rallies as Weekend Escalation Revives Hormuz Supply Risks; Gas Retreats as LNG Maintenance Caps Weather Support

Crude climbs as weekend conflict revives geopolitical risk

• The WTI prompt-month contract gained $2.95 to $74.36/Bbl on Monday morning (7:32 AM CT)
• Over the weekend, the US launched strikes against dozens of Iranian targets aimed at reducing Tehran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials maintained the waterway would remain closed "until further notice"
• Iran responded by launching attacks on US military installations in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Oman, according to Iranian state media
• • Although diplomatic discussions remain ongoing, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said its agreement with the US has "undoubtedly entered a crisis phase"
• Bloomberg reported that observable tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained subdued over the weekend, though the true level of activity was uncertain because some vessels may have been operating with their tracking systems turned off
• • The Joint Maritime Information Center said the Omani-coordinated southern shipping corridor remains open to commercial traffic
• The latest escalation has pushed geopolitical risk back into the oil market, lifting the Cal 2026 strip above $73/Bbl while the Cal 2027 strip traded near $70/Bbl (7:30 AM CT)

• • Gas opens lower on mixed weather changes
  • • Natural gas is down -4.3c to $2.897/MMBtu (As of 07:32 AM CDT)
    • Forecasts changes were mixed over the weekend
    • • The Midwest gained 29°F over the forecast period, offset by the South Central losing 30°F (Criterion)
    • According to CWG’s ENSO analog, SST temperature anomaly hit +2°C, still in strong El Niño territory
    • L48 production remains strong around 110 Bcf/d, hovering around 3 Bcf/d above last year’s levels
  • LNG feedgas demand lower on gulf maintenance
  • • L48 feedgas demand is at 16.6 Bcf/d, falling around 1.5 Bcf/d since Thursday
    • Freeport announced major one-train maintenance last week, prompting a 464 MMcf/d weekly decline in noms
    • Sabine Pass came in 647 MMcf/d lower today due to a planned ESD test dated July 13-15 (Criterion)