The WTI prompt-month contract is up $0.20 to $72.28/Bbl on Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
According to US officials, technical talks between the US and Iran are continuing following the two days of clashes that threatened to shatter the memorandum of understanding
Uncertainty over the future of US-Iran talks has increased as both sides have accused one another of violating the ceasefire injecting renewed geopolitical risk back into crude futures
The International Energy Agency said renewed hostilities between the US and Iran risk derailing efforts to rebuild depleted global oil inventories later this year
However, the escalation “clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to surplus next year”
The agency’s latest report forecasts surplus builds of 4.6 MMBbl/d in 2027
Gas Continues Decline as Cooling Trend Compounds LNG Outages
Natural gas is down -4.0c to $2.972/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
L48 weather forecasts cooled around 10°F this morning
Peak demand is still expected at around 18 CDDs on July 16, but a larger tapering is expected after that date now (Criterion)
Power demand fell from near yearly highs by over 1 Bcf/d to 46 Bcf/d
Production and Canadian imports fell this morning, bringing total supply down to just under 116 Bcf/d (Criterion)
Freeport LNG to begin major maintenance today
Given 1 train ran a turnaround from May 13 to June 11, Criterion expects this to cover the remaining two liquefaction trains sequentially
Overall LNG feedgas nominations fell 485 MMcf/d today to 17.5 Bcf/d, led by Freeports 509 MMcf/d fall
L48 storage injection were reported at 61 Bcf for the week ended July 3
This eclipsed the five-year average of 51 Bcf as well as market expectations
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