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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Oil Heads for Weekly Loss as Hormuz Recovers

Oil heads for modest weekly loss as Hormuz supply recovers

  • The August WTI contract is heading for a loss of about $1.50/Bbl this week

Saudi crude exports reach highest level since war began (Bloomberg)

  • Four supertankers carrying about 8 MMBbls of crude have departed Saudi Arabia’s main export hub
  • Traffic through the strait has picked up significantly, with vessels passing through a US-administered corridor in Omani waters
  • A limited number of Saudi tankers remain in the Persian Gulf, with two of the four indicating they are fully loaded

Ukraine strikes major Russian refinery (Bloomberg)

  • Ukraine said it attacked Lukoil’s Norsi refinery, damaging a primary processing unit
  • Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian refineries in recent weeks as part of a plan to force Russia to negotiate a resolution
    • 90% of Russian regions have begun fuel rationing amid supply disruptions
  • Russian crude exports have surged as local refinery demand falls

Gas inches down as forecast cools

  • Natural gas is down -4.4c to $3.176/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • Power burn rose 1.7 Bcf to 50.1 Bcf/d as the East Coast heat wave approaches a peak
  • Weather forecast cooled overnight with the L48 shedding 7°F across the range (Criterion)

Forecasted long-term global LNG demand growth remains strong (S&P)

  • Shell sees annual global LNG demand rising from 56.3 Bcf/d today to somewhere in the range of 90 Bcf/d by 2050
  • This estimate remains unchanged from their March forecast

Transco to reduce Southeast deliverability from July 7 through August 29 (Criterion)

  • The reduction will cut roughly 0.5 Bcf/d of North-to-South deliverability during the peak of summer demand, which adds to roughly 22 Bcf over 54 days
  • The reduction is to work on the SESE project

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