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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Trades Lower on Reports of Positive Discussions; Gas Slips on Mild Cooling

Oil trades lower amid US-Iran talks

  • Prompt crude prices have trended lower over the past several days, trading around the $70/Bbl level, while the 2027 calendar strip has been around $66.50/Bbl
  • Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held positive discussions in Qatar, as the US and Iran continue to work toward a lasting resolution to the conflict
  • Iran continues to insist on having some degree of control over the Strait of Hormuz

Goldman Sachs warns of oversupply despite stock rebuilds (Bloomberg)

  • According to Goldman Sachs, the oil market is still set to swing towards oversupply as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers
  • While the rebuild of global inventories should partially offset the glut, the surplus is expected to average over 3 MMBbl/d next year
  • Goldman assumes exports through the strait will return to normal levels by the end of July

Natural gas falls as weather forecast cools

  • Natural gas is down -6.8c to $3.207/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • There was mild cooling in the forecast from yesterday, lead by most of yesterday’s gains in the Midwest erasing (Criterion)
  • CDDs continued their climb higher to a seasonal high of around 15 CDDs this morning
  • Production slipped again today by nearly 0.9 Bcf/d to 108.4 Bcf/d

FERC clears 3.4 Bcf/d Southeast pipeline expansion

  • The 3.4 Bcf/d SSE 4 Project was cleared by FERC on June 26 according to the final environmental impact statement
  • The SSE 4 project will be built in phases on a late-decade timeline

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