Oil continues to gain despite ongoing peace talks

Oil trades higher, extending gains from yesterday

• The August WTI contract is trading around $71.50/Bbl this morning, after yesterday’s small gain pushed the prompt contract back above $70/Bbl
• US-Iran peace talks continue, with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arriving in Qatar
• • Iran’s foreign ministry said there “serious challenges” with implementing certain aspects of the MOU, including management of the Strait of Hormuz and access to frozen Iranian assets

Russian crude exports hit new record (Bloomberg)

• Russian crude exports are surging to record levels, resulting in a buildup of inventories at sea
• Four-week average crude shipments rose to 4.13 MMBbl/d, the highest level since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
• The increase in exports comes amid continued attacks on Russian refineries by Ukrainian drones, which has reduced local crude demand

Natural gas jumps as production slips and forecasts warm

• Natural gas
• L48 production slipped 1.5 Bcf/d to 109.3 Bcf/d (Criterion)
• • This Tuesday production slip is within the range we’ve seen the past few weeks
• Temperature forecasts inched a bit higher, which was led by gains in the Midwest in the 6-15 day range
• CDDs are expected to climb into the weekend to close to 18 CDDs before tapering throughout the rest of the forecast around the 14 CDD range (Criterion)

Major US gas E&Ps hold hedges steady in Q1 (S&P)

• Most larger players remained on the sidelines after heavy additions in prior quarters

GCX enters service, boosting Permian egress (S&P)

• The GCX expansion was placed into service on June 23
• Commissioning activities were conducted throughout much of June
• The expansion increases gas transportation capacity by approximately 570 MMcf/d