Crude Extends Decline as Hormuz Flows Recover; Natural Gas Firms Ahead of July Expiry

Oil extends losses despite recent vessel strikes in Hormuz

• The WTI prompt-month contract fell $2.31 to $69.61/Bbl as of 7:30 AM CT on Friday morning
• Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to recover following initial progress toward a longer-term agreement to end the US-Iran conflict, allowing additional crude supplies to reach global markets
• • According to Bloomberg, crude exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to roughly 75% of pre-conflict levels.
  • Saudi Arabia has resumed loading tankers at its flagship Ras Tanura export terminal inside the Persian Gulf.
  • Arrow Shipping & Energy estimates that nearly 75 MMBbls of crude have departed the Persian Gulf since the US-Iran peace deal
• Despite the recovery in exports, recent vessel strikes highlight that geopolitical risks remain elevated, leaving many shipowners cautious about returning to the region

Natural gas trades higher into July contract expiry

• The July contract is heading for a second weekly gain, with prices trading near $3.40/MMBtu
• Weather forecasts continue to show above-average temperatures into July, which should gas power demand
• Yesterday, the EIA reported a 76 Bcf injection into storage, which was larger than expected and bigger than the five-year average injection for the corresponding week

NGPL Texas to Louisiana expansion enters service (Criterion)

• FERC has granted NGPL authorization to begin service on an expansion of the line which sends gas across the Texas border into Louisiana
• This project should see capacity increase by about 300 MMcf/d, at a point which often runs at or near full capacity
• This will take more gas away from the east Texas region and send it to Henry Hub and nearby export plants