Crude Falls as Market Assesses Israel-Iran Ceasefire

Crude falls as markets assess Iran-Israel ceasefire prospects

The WTI prompt-month contract fell $2.05 to $89.25/Bbl on Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would pause military operations against Iran for now, while warning that any future attacks would be met with a response
President Donald Trump said negotiations remain close to completion, stating that “we’re in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal,” despite recent tensions between Iran and Israel
With energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz still significantly constrained, China’s crude imports have dropped to their lowest level in years
- Bloomberg reported that May crude imports fell to roughly 7.8 MMBbl/d, down from an average of about 11.6 MMBbl/d during 2025
To offset reduced access to Middle Eastern supplies, China has trimmed fuel exports, lowered refinery throughput, and drawn on strategic petroleum reserves
- Sumit Ritolia of Kpler said weaker Chinese crude purchases could persist through the summer months as supply disruptions continue to reshape trade flows

Gas inches up on mixed forecast

Natural gas is up 3.5c to $3.182/MMBtu. (As of 07:30 AM CDT)

CDDs ticked up overall in the L48 by 3.1, with warming in the Northeast and Southeast (Criterion)

There was some cooling offsetting most gains in the Midcon and West regions in the 6-10 day range (CWG)

Feedgas firms higher, ticking up 336 MMcf/d to 17,850 MMcf/d

Gains at Corpus and Freeport lead the L48 higher as maintenance is winding down in the Gulf region

Southwest Power Pool West Region under resource advisory (S&P)

The advisory, effective June 4, has been effective June 7 through June 9, 2026
The advisory is declared due to potential forecasts including higher-than-normal loads due to warm temperatures
Planned generation outages are expected between 1-1.4 GW
Power generation from wind and solar generation has come in below expectations, providing a bullish catalyst for natural gas in the region