Crude Prices Steady with Little Traction in US-Iran Talks, Gas Gives Back Gains

Crude prices steady with little traction in US-Iran talks

• The WTI prompt-month contract slipped $0.21 to $92.83/Bbl on Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• President Trump said discussions with Iran continue to advance, while Lebanon’s Hezbollah rejected a US-backed ceasefire proposal aimed at ending hostilities with Israel
• Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, limited evidence of a breakthrough has kept geopolitical risk in focus, leaving crude on track for a weekly gain as disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz persist
• • On Thursday, Trump described negotiations as being in their “final stages,” though he provided few details, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi maintained that talks had yet to produce meaningful results
• Supply disruptions have weighed on crude flows into Asia, contributing to a sharp decline in Chinese imports during May
• • According to Kpler, China’s crude arrivals fell to 6.7 MMBbl/d, down from an average of approximately 10.4 MMBbl/d in 2025
• Separately, the UK government has increased its internal oil price outlook, concluding that crude could remain near $100/Bbl through 2028 even if Washington and Tehran ultimately reach a peace agreement
• • The Cal 2028 WTI strip was trading at $70.86/Bbl on Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)

Gas gives back gains as the Rockies and Midwest region’s forecasts cool

• Natural gas is down -3.7c to $3.299/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
• There were mild changes to the weather forecast this morning
• • In the 1-10 day range, the only notable warming in the Northeast, however most of the warming was outside of the L48 in Canada (CWG)
  • The Rockies lost over 10°F over the forecast range, and the Midwest lost 12°F (Criterion)

El Niño conditions are highly likely this summer, but NWS predicts a 37% chance of El Niño becoming very strong, with sea surface temperature anomalies >2°C

• Record breaking warm temperatures are possible in the event of a Super El Niño, and history shows it also having a warming effect on the Winter season

Feedgas flows eased over -350 MMcf/d (Criterion)

• Golden Pass continues its choppy commissioning progress, with nominations back at 5 MMcf/d this morning

The EIA reported a 95 Bcf injection lifting working gas storage to 2,578 Bcf

• The report fell just short of the median estimate of 99 Bcf
• The build wasn’t enough to stay above last years record levels, slipping 3 Bcf under last year’s amount
• • However, stocks are still 138 Bcf above the 5 year average