WTI Eases off Recent Highs Despite Worsening Hormuz Outlook

Brent futures push to a four-year high before easing

• The American benchmark, WTI, prompt-month contract slipped $1.47 to $105.41/Bbl on Thursday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• Prices surged earlier after Axios reported that the head of US Central Command is set to present President Donald Trump with potential military responses, reinforcing expectations that renewed strikes remain on the table
• • US Central Command has outlined a scenario involving a rapid, high-intensity round of attacks, potentially targeting key Iranian infrastructure to pressure negotiations
• Iran’s newly installed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated Thursday that Tehran will continue advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities while maintaining firm control over the Strait of Hormuz
• Analysts have coined a new term “NACHO” (“Not A Chance Hormuz Opens”) to reflect the growing view that a near-term reopening of the waterway is unlikely
• While the front of the curve strengthens, Cal 27 remains supported, holding above $72/Bbl

Natural Gas is down as mild tightening does little to sway overall injection balance

• Natural gas is down -3.7c to $2.61/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
• The EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report today, with Bloomberg survey showing a median expectation of 83 Bcf injection for the week ending Apr 24
• Implied daily injections have fallen from around 17 Bcf/d to 10 Bcf/d, and will continue oscillating in this range early May (Criterion)
• • Rescom demand has a forecasted peak tomorrow and Saturday at 8 HDDs

LNG feedgas plunged to 18.5 Bcf/d this morning as Cameron LNG lost 655 MMcf/d (Criterion)

Greek energy firm AKTOR Group signed a series of long-term LNG supply deals (NGI)

• Southeast Europe is emerging as a new demand center for US LNG