Crude Rises as US-Iran Talks Fail to Materialize

Futures rise as weekend passes without progress on US-Iran talks

• The WTI prompt-month contract gained $1.46 to $95.86/bbl on Monday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• Prices moved higher as attempts to restart negotiations over the Iran conflict failed to materialize
• While a ceasefire has broadly remained in place since early April, ongoing maritime restrictions from both the US and Iran have reduced vessel traffic through the strait to minimal levels
• According to Axios, President Trump is set to meet Monday with senior national security and foreign policy officials to assess the ongoing impasse
• Goldman Sachs raised its oil price outlook, citing the sustained closure of Hormuz and the resulting acceleration in inventory draws
• • WTI is now projected to average $83/bbl in 4Q26, up from a prior estimate of $77/bbl
  • Analysts estimate that roughly 14.5 MMBbl/d of disrupted Persian Gulf output is pushing global inventories into record draws of 11–12 MMBbl/d in April, a pace viewed as unsustainable, with deeper demand erosion likely if disruptions persist
  • The bank now expects Gulf export flows to normalize by end-June rather than mid-May, alongside a more gradual recovery in regional production

Natural gas inches up on some added back weather-driven demand

• Natural gas is up 7.3c to $2.596/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
• L48 cooled 13° over the weekend, adding back some rescom demand to the 2-week forecast range (Criterion)
• Most of the added cold was added east of the Rockies, which has been a theme this year
• Last week, the EIA reported the L48 inventory surplus expanded again
• • The Pacific region has 269 Bcf of natural gas stored, compared to a 186.8 five-year average
  • The Rockies region has 202 Bcf of natural gas stored, compared to 128.6 five-year average
  • • The rest of the L48 is at or below the 5-year average, signaling slight bullish edge for gas east of the Rockies
  • Production eased slightly to 108.9 Bcf/d, but is expected to rise as the week goes on

Golden Pass sent its first cargo last week

• CCL Stage 3 Train 6 remains on track for early-May gas flows (Criterion)