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Daily First Look
Daily briefThomas Liardon

Crude Climbs as Ceasefire Outlook Remains Uncertain

Crude climbs as ceasefire outlook remains uncertain

  • The WTI prompt-month contract gained $4.53 to $88.38/bbl on Monday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • Market concerns intensified that the US–Iran ceasefire could break down after Washington seized an Iranian-linked tanker attempting to bypass its blockade, prompting threats of retaliation from Tehran
  • Iran signaled it may not participate in upcoming negotiations aimed at formally ending the seven-week conflict, though officials noted a final decision is still pending
  • Despite statements from President Trump about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, vessel activity remains severely limited, with reports indicating minimal tanker movement through the corridor on Monday
  • With the blockade still effectively restricting flows, Kuwait Petroleum Corp. declared force majeure on crude and refined product shipments
    • Kuwaiti officials noted that restoring production to prewar levels would likely take several months following any de-escalation

Natural gas inches up on late-season cold shot

  • Natural gas prompt month is up 5.4c to $2.728/MMBtu. (As of 07:30 AM CDT)
  • Production slipped a further 0.8 Bcf/d from Friday with Appalachia leading the losses, down nearly 1 Bcf/d (Bloomberg)
  • The late season cold shot peaks today, as average L48 temperatures dipped below 55°F (Criterion)
    • Temperatures will rebound above the 10 year average by the end of the week, with minor cooling expected heading into next week
    • Rescom demand rebounded sharply on the cold shot, up over 10 Bcf/d to 22.7 Bcf/d
    • Canadian imports rebounded to 5.2 Bcf/d today
  • Feedgas demand is consistently holding above 20 Bcf/d
    • Exxon withdrew an offer to sell two initial commissioning cargoes from Golden Pass (Reuters)
    • CCL Stage 3 Train 6 is expected to begin flowing gas in May

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