Oil Ticks Up as Markets Weigh Possible Ceasefire Extension

Crude edges higher on potential ceasefire extension

• The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.43 to $91.72/bbl on Thursday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• Futures moved modestly higher as markets assess indications that Washington and Tehran may be exploring a two-week extension to the current ceasefire, per Bloomberg
• • Iran’s joint military command signaled that continued US blockade measures could trigger a halt to all energy shipments across the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea
• Supply risks continue to build under the US blockade, with analysts flagging potential for further disruption to seaborne flows
• • Approximately 3.8 MMbbl/d of crude and refined products transited the affected waterways last month, leaving a meaningful volume exposed to escalation risk
• The IMF lowered its global growth outlook in its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, citing conflict-related uncertainty
• • Global GDP is now expected to expand 3.1% this year under a short-lived disruption scenario, down from a prior 3.4% estimate
  • Growth could slow to 2.5% if tensions persist, and fall toward 2.0% in a more severe escalation case involving infrastructure damage
• The EIA reported a 0.9 MMbbl draw in total US inventories for the week ending April 10

Natural gas is steady going into weekly storage report

• Natural gas is up 1.7c to $2.616/MMBtu (As of 07:37 AM CDT)
• Production eased across much of the L48, offset by gains in Texas production, to stay around 103.5 Bcf/d of dry gas production (S&P)
• While production may have been low these last two weeks, total consumption has been even lower
• • Total consumption (power, rescom, and Industrial demand) has been below 70 Bcf/d for about a week now (S&P)
• The EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report today, with Bloomberg survey showing a median expectation of 59 Bcf injection

Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 Train 6 could begin flowing gas by May

Golden Pass LNG’s outlook for next week is at 450 MMcf/d, which signals that throughput is gaining consistency (Criterion)