Crude Advances as Fragile Ceasefire Fails to Restore Hormuz Flows

Crude rebounds as Hormuz disruptions persist

• The WTI prompt-month contract rose $4.91/Bbl to $99.32/Bbl on Thursday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• Futures moved higher following the sharpest one-day selloff since 2020, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz still heavily restricted
• • Iranian state-linked media indicated tanker traffic was halted after Israeli strikes in Lebanon
• While prices have been reactive to shifting headlines, physical supply remains constrained with limited transit through the strait
• President Trump said US forces will remain in the Persian Gulf ahead of planned negotiations with Iran aimed at reinforcing the ceasefire
• • The truce remains in place, but both sides are positioning for upcoming talks in Islamabad, with key disagreements suggesting a quick resolution is unlikely
• Domestically, commercial crude inventories increased by approximately 3.1 MMbbls for the week ending April 3, while Cushing stocks were unchanged week over week following six consecutive builds

Natural gas steady as production slippage balances warming temperatures

• Natural gas is down -0.9c to $2.715/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CT)
• Production fell a further -0.8 Bcf/d today to 108.3 Bcf/d as maintenance outages continue (Criterion)
• HDDs have fallen from around 14 on Tuesday to 6 today across the L48
• • CDDs are in the forecast range early next week, as temperatures warm across the L48
• Weather-driven gas demand looks weak over the next two weeks as temperatures approach 65 ºF

The EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report today, with Bloomberg survey showing a median expectation of 48 Bcf injection