Crude Steady as Reported Ceasefire Talks Emerge

Crude steady as traders assess ceasefire reports

• The WTI prompt-month contract slipped $1.04 to $110.50 as of Monday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• The US, Iran, and regional intermediaries are reportedly exploring terms for a potential 45-day pause that could serve as a pathway toward ending the conflict, according to Axios
• Over the weekend, President Trump signaled in multiple social media posts that the US could target Iranian power plants and other infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened
• • Tehran dismissed the ultimatum, with transit through the Strait still largely restricted, aside from limited vessel activity
  • Iran announced Saturday that Iraq would be exempt from its restrictions, which could allow some recovery in oil shipments
• President Trump said he will hold a press conference at 1pm Monday and also referenced a Tuesday 8pm deadline for Iran, though specifics were not provided
• OPEC+ cautioned that any damage to Middle East energy infrastructure could have lasting supply impacts beyond the conflict, while announcing a largely symbolic quota increase for next month
• • The group approved a production target increase of roughly 206 MBbl/d

Natural gas inches up on some weekend cold

• Natural gas is up 4.1c to $2.841/MMBtu (As of 07:30 AM CT)
• Demand surged above 114 Bcf/d, led by a large gain in Rescom of 8.6 Bcf/d to 24.9 Bcf/d
• Total supply stayed relatively consistent from Friday, at 115.3 Bcf/d (Criterion)
• • A brief cold spell could temporarily flip the injection balance for a few days
• Natural gas has been attributing 72-76% of the thermal stack over the last 14 days (Criterion)
• • With prices hovering around $3.00/ MMbtu, its in the higher range of prices for a large thermal stack

Golden Pass could see first LNG export by April 22 (S&P)

• An LNG vessel serving Sabine Pass is expected to Arrive April 20th
• When full service in 2027 Golden Pass will be expected at 2.5 Bcf/d of feedgas demand