Crude Pushes Higher as Trump Delays Iran Deadline, Extending Strait Disruption Risk

Crude moves higher as Iran deadline is pushed back

• The WTI prompt-month contract rose $2.42 to $96.90/bbl on Friday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• President Trump delayed a planned deadline targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure by 10 days, extending uncertainty around the trajectory of the conflict into next month
• • The Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is evaluating the deployment of up to 10,000 additional ground troops, supplementing existing forces that include Marine Expeditionary Units and elements of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division
• With Tehran effectively shutting down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict has sharply curtailed global energy flows
• • Macquarie Group estimates crude could reach $200/bbl if the conflict persists into June, assigning roughly a 40% probability to that outcome
  • Analyst Vikas Dwivedi noted that a prolonged closure would require prices to rise enough to significantly curb global oil demand
• US and Israeli strikes continue even as diplomatic efforts remain underway, prompting analysts to extend their base-case timelines as uncertainty persists

Gas April contract rallies on final trading day

• Natural gas is up 11.3c to $3.041/MMBtu. (As of 07:30 AM CT)
• Some cold weather hit the forecasts this morning on the last trading day of the April contract
• • L48 average temperatures lost 13.1°F over the forecast period, cooling the next two weeks (Criterion)
  • Most of the colder shift was centered in the Northeast and Midwest
  • The overall pattern is still intact, as forecasts are showing mostly normal/ above normal temperatures heading into April
• Demand forecasts gained around 18 Bcf over the 14-day outlook
• Gas storage still looks to be flipping towards Injection season as the implied S&D balance is loosening over the next two weeks to around 10 Bcf/d by the end of the forecast period

AccuWeather forecasted the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on March 25 (S&P)

• They predict a 15% chance of a Super El Niño occurring in the latter half of the hurricane season, which could increase the unpredictability of weather for all of 2026
• They forecasted 11-16 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 3-5 landfalls in the US
• Hurricanes, especially ones centered in the gulf coast, pose a bearish risk to gas prices and demand