WTI Falls After Trump Postpones Energy Strikes

Crude drops following Trump's postponement of energy strikes

• The WTI prompt-month contract declined $6.92 to $91.31 per barrel on Monday morning (7:34 AM CT)
• Prices moved lower after Trump indicated he had engaged in discussions aimed at ending the conflict with Iran
• • Trump said he would hold off strikes against Iranian power and energy sites for five days
• Iranian state media rejected the claim of negotiations and framed the statement as a retreat prompted by Iran’s willingness to retaliate
• Despite the ceasefire being announced via social media, fighting is expected to persist this week while flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely disrupted
• Goldman Sachs increased its 2026 oil price outlook citing the extended interruption to supply flows
• • WTI is now projected to average $79 per barrel in 2026, compared with a prior estimate of $72
• IEA Executive Director Faith Birol said the current disruption is comparable to the combined impact of the 1970s oil crises and the 2022 energy shock, noting that more than 40 energy assets across the Middle East have sustained significant damage

Natural gas slips as L48 production rebounds and demand forecast falls

• Natural gas is down -13.6c to $2.959/MMBtu (As of 07:34 AM CT)
• Weather forecasts shifted significantly warmer over the weekend, adding 12.7°F to the forecast period
• • The gains were almost entirely in the 1–5-day range in the Northeast and Midwest as real cold left this week’s outlook (Criterion)
  • HDDs are consistently below the 10-YR normal throughout most of the 2-week forecast period
• Domestic gas production rose over 300 MMcf/d this morning as production rebounded across most regions (S&P)

Golden Pass LNG consistent at 300-323 MMcf/d nominations (Criterion)

• CCL Stage 3 Train 5 commissioning remains active with volatility
• Train 6 start-up is expected in the coming months
• The facility needs to complete cryogenic cool-down and receive FERC production authorization before sending out its first cargo