Crude and Gas Rise as Middle East Energy Infrastructure Attacks Escalate

Energy infrastructure comes under continued attack

• The WTI prompt-month contract gained $0.37 to $96.69/bbl on Thursday morning (7:30 AM CT)
• Following strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field, Iran launched a missile that damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, home to the world’s largest LNG export facility
• Exports from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, a key alternative route while the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, were briefly disrupted following retaliatory strikes by Iran according to Bloomberg
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the US is evaluating potential sanctions relief on Iranian crude to help ease elevated energy prices
• • Officials are also considering a unilateral SPR release to cap price gains, though direct intervention in financial markets is not being pursued
  • Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to meet with oil industry executives on Thursday
• The WTI-Brent spread widened, with WTI’s discount to Brent reaching $20/bbl before narrowing

Natural gas prompt month is up 12.8c to $3.193/MMBtu. (As of 07:30 AM CT)

• Weather forecasts were mostly flat this morning
• • Gains in the Midwest and Northeast 1–5-day range were almost completely offset by losses in the 6–10-day range in the Northeast, Southeast, and South Central (Criterion)
  • Despite the slight change, forecasts remain mostly in line with the 10 year normal
• The EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report today, with Bloomberg survey showing a median expectation of a 39 Bcf build

Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG facilities at Ras Laffan in escalating Gulf conflict (Bloomberg)

• LNG production at Ras Laffan was already offline after the March 2 attacks
• Structural assessments have yet to be disclosed, but this will likely push back the restart date of the facility
• US LNG continues to run at full capacity, so disruptions to global supply have little impact on US spot prices